Economics of Monetary Crises مقاله

خلاصه ماشینی:

The first theory links monetary instability to the structural imbalances of countries and weak economic policies, while the second considers changes in market expectations as the primary source of instability. Following years of prosperity, the crisis-stricken countries of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea witnessed the collapse of their foreign currency value and a reversal of capital flows from 1997 onwards; whereas in the first half of 1997, investors had exported a massive volume of financial resources to Asian countries, in the second half of the year this trend reversed and approximately 100 billion dollars of capital flowed abroad. Those who observe the weakness of the private sector can see that in the future, the government will be forced to implement an expansionary monetary policy to finance the costs of intervention because this monetary expansion will be inconsistent with maintaining a fixed exchange rate; investors will expect the devaluation of the currency, and this expectation will trigger the start of a speculative attack. Second-generation models: Expectations and multiple equilibria In changing the first-generation patterns of monetary crisis, the possibility of maintaining or not maintaining a fixed exchange rate is determined by exogenous fundamental variables that are not related to the behavior of economic agents. A monetary crisis in country A reduces the ability of domestic borrowers to repay their debts to foreign banks, which in turn leads to requests for loan repayments.