چکیده:
The electricity industry is not only one of the most significant industries in the nation, but it is also one of the most significant pillars of economic development. The numerous roles that electricity plays in a country's economy make it clear that anticipating electricity consumption is crucial. In this regard, the combined ARDL and ARIMA technique is used in the current study to forecast the nation's electricity demand. With an emphasis on the impact of temperature and various rates of economic growth, this study attempts to forecast Iran's total electricity demand over 30 years (2021 to 2050) under 4 alternative scenarios. The development of the scenario is based on the rise in the nation's average temperature and various rates of economic growth. The first and second scenarios rely on the country's average temperature increase of 0. 26% per annum and economic growth rates of 2% and 8%. Furthermore, the third and fourth ones are based on the country's average temperature increase of 0. 45% a year and economic growth rates of 2 and 8%. The study's findings reveal that temperature and economic growth have a substantial impact on how much electricity is consumed, but they also indicate that as temperatures rise and the GDP expands, there will be a huge increase in demand for electricity. Additionally, additional findings show that the power demand is inelastic to price fluctuations. As a result, efforts to reduce electricity consumption should be based on policies to increase energy efficiency as well as policies to regulate temperature and greenhouse gas emissions by increasing the proportion of renewable technologies in the nation's electricity supply portfolio.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Long-term forecasting of electricity demand in Iran (An approach based on scenario building using a combined ARDL and ARIMA approach) Hossein Hafezi Master's student in Energy Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran Mahboubeh Delfan Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran Abstract The electricity sector, in addition to being considered one of the most important industries in the country, is also one of the most influential pillars of economic growth and development.
An examination of the country's situation shows that Iran's electricity consumption has increased in recent years due to reasons such as the high volume of energy subsidies, which has led to declining electricity prices over the past 40 years, population growth, urbanization, improved living standards and increased welfare, rising temperatures, climate change, and industrial and commercial development (Jalaee et al.
Changi Ashtiani and Jalouli (1391) investigated a research titled "Estimating the Electricity Demand Function and its Forecasting for Iran's 1404 Horizon and its Role in National Development Considering the Targeting of Energy Subsidies" using the autoregressive distributed lags model.
Pourkazemi & Aghaeifar 3 (1394), by employing a hybrid neural network approach, conducted a study in the field of investigating the effect of reducing electricity subsidies on electricity consumption, and the dynamic prospective forecasting results show that increasing the electricity price up to 450 Rials per kilowatt-hour (current approved price), an economic total cost equivalent to 794 Rials, and the global price equal to 1252.
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