چکیده:
The transportation sector is one of the largest consumers of oil in the world. About 50 percent of global oil demand is allocated to this sector. In 2005, approximately 52 percent of total petroleum product consumption in Iran was dedicated to the transportation sector. Important factors are involved in determining the amount of oil demand in this sector. These factors include the number of vehicles, vehicle efficiency, the level of public transportation development, transportation infrastructure, per capita income level, fuel prices, and the cost of using private transportation compared to public transportation. Various methods have been presented to predict oil consumption in the land transportation sector, which accounts for more than 80 percent of oil consumption in the transportation sector. In this article, an indirect method is used such that the number of vehicles per 1,000 people is estimated using a logistic model, and then based on the fuel consumption rate per vehicle, the total fuel consumption is estimated. The number of vehicles per 1,000 people in Iran in 2004 was approximately 75 vehicles, including passenger cars, ambulances, minibuses, buses, vans, and cargo trucks. The total number of vehicles in this year was about 5 million. The number of vehicles per 1,000 people relative to real per capita income has grown significantly in recent years, indicating increasing consumption in future years. This is while the number of vehicles per 1,000 people in Iran in current conditions is much lower than DCEO countries and some developing countries like South Korea, although it is higher than the average of China, South Asian countries, the Middle East, Africa, and recently OPEC. Using the logistic model estimation for the data from 1970-2005 and assuming an economic growth of 3.5% per year, population growth of 1.1% per year, and improvement in average consumption per vehicle from 40 barrels in 2005 to 30 barrels in 2035, the number of vehicles per 1,000 people will reach approximately 211. Oil consumption, with a growth of 3.1% per year, will increase from 234 million barrels (6.4 million barrels per day or 102 million liters per day) to 611 million barrels (17.1 million barrels per day and 266 million liters per day), which requires very serious planning to prevent a crisis, ensure energy supply security in this sector, and reduce the heavy financial burden on the government.
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