چکیده:
Industrial employment during two time periods, the years 1355 and 1375, has had a comparative advantage in those industries and they have been introduced as basic industries. To identify the factors of differences in the industrial employment growth rate between the country's provinces using the share change method, it has been determined that since structural changes were positive in 11 provinces and negative in 13 provinces, the industry mix—relative to the country's desirable industry mix—was desirable in 11 provinces and undesirable in the other 13 provinces. Also, since differential changes were positive in 15 provinces and negative in 9 other provinces, competitive effects in 15 provinces caused an increase in industrial employment growth rate differences, and in 9 other provinces, caused a decrease in these differences. Therefore, the causes of industrial employment growth rate differences are mostly related to competitive effects or provincial characteristics, and cumulative effects resulting from the industrial structure have had less impact on industrial employment growth rate differences; meaning that employment growth in the industrial sector in most provinces is related to competitive effects, not cumulative effects. Today, economic growth and development are not very possible without considering the industrial sector. Also, employment and generally human resources hold a special position in economic issues. In the economy of Iran, employment is one of the main concerns of economic policymakers. Analyzing the trend of industrial employment and its structure at the level of Iran's provinces requires precise knowledge of the potential and capabilities of industries and their combination in the provinces so that balanced and steady planning and job creation can be realized in each province. In the classification of Iran's provinces from the dimension of industrial employment growth rate during the period of the years 1353-1373 and the changes that occurred between the two time periods, namely the first period, the years 1353-1363, and the second period, the years 1364-1373, the results have been as follows: among the 24 provinces of the country, the industrial employment growth rate in 20 provinces was higher than the country's total, and in 4 provinces, it was lower than the country's total. Also, the industrial employment growth rate in 10 provinces increased from the first period to the second period. In other words, industrial employment in 10 provinces was flourishing. However, in the other 14 provinces, the industrial employment growth rate decreased from the first period to the second period. Therefore, in terms of the industrial employment growth rate, 14 provinces moved towards convergence and the other 10 provinces moved towards divergence. In order to analyze the industrial structure, in addition to identifying the industries that the provinces...
خلاصه ماشینی:
industrial employment during the two time periods of 1355 and 1375 had relative advantages and were introduced as basic industries, has been identified using the shift-share method,1 to identify the factors causing differences in the industrial employment growth rate among the country's provinces.
Identifying the employment structure in the industrial sector at the national and regional levels has special importance, given the share of this sector in the gross domestic product on one hand, and its distribution at the level of the country's provinces towards balanced provincial employment growth and development on the other hand.
A- Total Changes:1 The provinces of West Azerbaijan, Isfahan, Ilam, Bushehr, Tehran, Khuzestan, Semnan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Fars, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Gilan, Lorestan, Mazandaran, and Hormozgan are among the provinces that have experienced industrial employment growth higher than the national level during this time period.
Results of the shift-share method in 42 provinces of the country in the time period of 1355-1375 show that, respectively, the provinces of Khuzestan, Tehran, Hormozgan, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Gilan, Bushehr, Ilam, Sistan and Baluchestan, Markazi, Fars, and Kermanshah have had a desirable industrial mix in terms of industrial employment growth.
Table A: Components of the change-share pattern of the industrial sector employment growth rate in Iran's provinces during the period 1355-1375 (refer to the page image) Source: Processed from the general census of population and housing statistics of the Statistical Center of Iran for the years 1355 and 1375, researcher's calculations.
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