A multi-sectoral and dynamic manpower planning model for the Third Plan مقاله

چکیده:

The primary objective of this article is to formulate and present a multi-sectoral and dynamic manpower planning model. The empirical results regarding the required manpower during the Third Development Plan are presented in terms of occupational groups, fields of study, and educational levels. First, the empirical results are provided in the 'baseline solution.' In the baseline solution, it is assumed that the growth rate of some major macroeconomic variables is determined based on the objectives stated in the Third Development Plan. Calculations based on the multi-sectoral dynamic manpower model show that the increase in employment during the plan is approximately 1,870 thousand people, which is less than half of the Third Plan's prediction. Given the dependence of the required manpower on the production growth rate and the time path of major economic variables, numerous comparative dynamic experiments were conducted to calculate the time trends of manpower across different occupational groups, fields, and educational levels under different policy options. In the first comparative experiment, it was assumed that the growth rate of government expenditures, as an expansionary policy, would be one percent higher than the plan's objectives, in addition to capital expenditures increasing in a way that enables increased production throughout the plan years. The results obtained from the numerical solution of the model show that employment during the Third Plan increases by about 145 thousand people compared to the baseline solution, reaching approximately 3,015 thousand people. In the second comparative experiment, it is assumed that the growth rate of private expenditures, as an expansionary policy, is one percent higher than the plan's target. Empirical results show the effect of adopting expansionary policies aimed at increasing the growth rate of government expenditures on employment during the Third Development Plan. The results from the numerical solution of the model show that such a policy causes employment during the Third Plan to increase by about 645 thousand people—compared to the baseline solution—reaching approximately 2,515 thousand people. Based on multiple comparative experiments, efforts were made to adjust the growth rates of private and government expenditures, and investment consistent with these expenditure growth objectives, so that the increase in employment during the Third Plan approaches the targets set in the plan as much as possible. Considering the results of the comparative dynamic experiments, it was assumed that both the growth rate of private expenditures and the growth rate of private expenditures as an expansionary policy would both be two percent higher than the plan's target. The results show that such a policy causes employment during the Third Plan to increase by about 1,730 thousand people compared to the baseline solution, reaching approximately 3,600 thousand people. Under the titles of comparative experiments 4, 5, 6, and 7, corresponding to the baseline solution and comparative experiments 1, 2, and 3, the labor structure by educational level was calculated during the planning period, taking into account an upward trend for the ratio of skilled labor to total employed labor and a downward trend for the ratio of illiterates to total employed labor. Empirical results show that assuming an upward trend for the ratio of skilled labor to total employed labor will lead to significant changes in the amount of skilled labor employment. For example, we consider comparative experiment 3, which is closer to the employment goals of the plan. Replacing labor with higher educational levels instead of lower educational levels results in the demand for skilled labor in the year 1383 changing from approximately 1,978 thousand people in comparative experiment 3 to approximately 2,818 thousand people in comparative experiment 7, an increase of about 839 thousand people. In the year 1388, skilled labor reaches approximately 4,178 thousand people in comparative experiment 7, an increase of about 1,705 thousand people from approximately 2,473 thousand people in comparative experiment 3. Given that the demand for labor during the Third Plan at various occupational levels and different educational levels is considerably less than the amount expected to reduce the unemployment rate, the adoption of economic expansionary policies that increase both government and private sector demand is recommended. The goal of adopting economic expansionary measures is to increase production and, consequently, the level of employment in various occupational groups and different educational levels. In this regard, policies that work towards increasing the supply and production capacity of the country's economy are preferred, given their potential implications for price increases. Therefore, in adopting economic expansionary policies, the fundamental emphasis should be placed on increasing investment and removing administrative, financial, and credit obstacles to increase private investment incentives.