چکیده:
The aim of this article is to examine the effects of trade liberalization and its impact on the government budget through the dynamic movement of variables, which can be utilized in optimal control theory. To achieve this goal, first, the effects of choosing a trade strategy on economic indicators, such as the government budget and the benefits and losses resulting from an incorrect strategy choice, are investigated; then, a macro model will be presented that relies more on variables covering the objective and is solved through a simultaneous system. In the next stage, the results of this system are used as constraints for the optimal control theory. Also, by presenting various scenarios, the results arising from the effects of variables on each other have been tested and the final results extracted. An important and expected result is the simultaneous use of fiscal and monetary tools to control and guide the variables, which has been presented.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The aim of this article is to examine the effects of trade liberalization and its impact on the government budget through the dynamic movement of variables, which can be utilized in optimal control theory.
Keywords: Iran, government budget, trade liberalization, economic policy, optimal control theory Introduction The dynamic nature of the behavior of economic variables is such that it exerts many effects on other economic variables over time.
However, in studies conducted using savings and investment methods and by considering their equilibrium level as a result of tariff reductions 3, it has been proven that the effect of liberalization in developing countries depends more on the type of people's expectations regarding trade reforms.
Table(3): Balanced coefficients of target and control variables In this scenario, the optimal values of the government consumption expenditure variable in the period (1376-0), which also includes the forecast period up to the year 1390, are almost aligned with the desired values in the initial years; however, at the end of the period, it will experience severe fluctuations resulting from the release of variables without considering a goal for them.
As analyzed in Scenario 2, tariffs cannot have much effect on imports due to structural reasons, and even by targeting tariffs based on an annual decreasing growth of 5 percent per year (as a control policy), it cannot place them on the desirable path.
- Liberalization, along with tariff reductions, changes the structure of government revenues and increases imbalance in macroeconomic indicators, such as budget deficits.
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