چکیده:
The exchange rate is one of the most significant economic variables in any country. Fluctuations in the exchange rate lead to changes in other economic variables. Due to the comprehensive conditions and restrictions that Iran has faced over the years, it has constantly been exposed to exchange rate volatility and has experienced numerous currency crises in the past years. Currency crises can arise from various factors, including sanctions, an increase in money supply, a decline in gross domestic product (GDP), speculation, and more. Banks can have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market. This research examines the mechanisms through which commercial banks influence Iran's foreign exchange market during times of crisis. This study is qualitative and applied in nature. Data collection methods include expert interviews and document analysis, including books, articles, reports and relevant websites. Through a thematic analysis of research sources, the mechanisms of commercial banks during the country’s currency crises, with a focus on the 2018 (1397) crisis, have been identified and explained in both negative and positive dimensions. Negative mechanisms include speculative operations, an increase in the country’s money supply, money laundering, capital flight, irregularities in central bank currency allocation, failure to attract foreign currency deposits, lack of credit extension to the production sector or misuse of production sector loans, non-performing loans, asset hoarding, and inefficiencies in international banking. Positive mechanisms include adhering to financial transaction restrictions, forecasting crises and reserving foreign assets to manage the crisis, crisis mitigation through bank-affiliated exchange bureaus, and facilitating international transfers, all of which demonstrate the role banks play during currency crises.
خلاصه ماشینی:
- Decrease in oil price - Unprofessional and rushed political decision-making about - Severe deficit in the state budget such as Dubai - Dependence on the reopening of budget - Severe budget deficit - currencies such as the dollar and sanctions of the - Non-oil trade deficit - Dependence on the implementation of the mechanism 344 Year 13 ♦ No. 2 ♦ Serial 49 ♦ Summer 2024 Year 74-73 78-77 91-90 97-96 98-99 401 non-oil centralized media triggered by the United States - Delay in repayment such as SWIFT - Unmanaged imports - Threat of US cutting off banks and lack of trust - Intensification of sanctions and withdrawal from the JCPOA - Disruption of the financial connection of Iran's system to the global banking network - Foreign exchange deposits - Management - Capital flight related to this issue in year 90 and reduction in investment - Currency speculation - Decrease in interest rates - Sharp increase and passivity of banking officials - Increase in demand for the subject and reduction in capital - Inflation - Decrease in economic growth - Deep foreign exchange crisis - Severe budget deficit - Absence of a deep foreign exchange market - Severe non-oil trade deficit Source: (Research findings (Summary of previous studies)) 2.
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