چکیده:
Awareness of the future money demand of the country is essential for determining priorities and selecting monetary policy in line with facilitating economic growth and development. The present research forecasts the amount of money demand in Iran in the 1404 horizon using VECM, VAR, and ARIMA time series models, utilizing data from the years 1355 to 1385. The results show that the ARIMA model, with an error rate of 1/3 percent, provides the most suitable forecast for money demand. Accordingly, it is predicted that money demand will have an average annual growth rate of 26 percent until the year 1404.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Forecasting Money Demand in the 1404 Horizon in Iran (Application of Time Series Models) Dr. Seyed Safdar Hosseini, Professor at the Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, Agriculture and Natural Resources Campus, University of Tehran{o*o} Habib Shahbazi, PhD student, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, Agriculture and Natural Resources Campus, University of Tehran{o**o} Halimeh Jahangir, Master of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development - Agriculture and Natural Resources Campus, University of Tehran{o***o} Received date: 87/12/20 Accepted date: 88/6/12 Pages: 67-86 Awareness of the future money demand of the country is essential for determining priorities and selecting monetary policy to facilitate economic growth and development.
Seyed Safdar Hosseini and Mohammad Reza Bakhshi, "Analysis of Money Demand in Iran: Application of the Autoregressive Model with Distributed Lags," Iranian Economic Research, Year 8, Number 28, (1385), pp.
Ali Sadeghzadeh Yazdi, Ahmad Jafari Samimi and Zahra Elmi, "Estimating the long-term and short-term money demand function in Iran using the autoregressive distributed lag model", Iranian Economic Research, Year 8, Number 29, (1385), pp.
Ahmad Jafari Samimi, Zahra Elmi and Ali Sadeghzadeh Yazdi, "Investigating the stability of the money demand function in Iran: Application of the Johansen-Johansen method", Economic Research, Year 18, Number 72, (1385), pp.
(refer to the page image) Given the results of Table (4), based on which both the trace statistic and the maximum eigenvalue confirm the existence of at least one long-term relationship between the money demand function variables, it is necessary to estimate this relationship under a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
(
, 
, 
)
