چکیده:
A global economic recovery is expected to be ignited in 2010 but this will be characterized by very different growth trajectories among advanced and emerging economies. The downside risks are formidable. Sustaining this recovery will require skillful macroeconomic management. Exit strategies for fiscal stimulus will need to be carefully timed and credible fiscal consolidation plans need to be designed, implemented and communicated to all stakeholders. Monetary policies that go beyond a narrow focus on consumer price inflation would need to be redesigned and implemented. More effective financial supervision and regulation that incorporate the lessons learnt from the financial crisis must be effected and carefully coordinated with monetary policy. Greater flexibility in exchange rates that would curb global imbalances is needed. Looking ahead, a new social compact would need to be determined to both chart the recovery and sustain long-term growth and employment. The crisis is likely to usher fundamental and far reaching changes in economic decision making.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"The purpose of this paper is to identify the challenges of macroeconomic management for the post-crisis recovery as individual economies find new moorings and global imbalances are wound down in an orderly manner, in order to sustain global growth with low inflation.
An understanding of these preconditions is essential for the magnitude and nature of the macroeconomic challenge in terms of fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies that would need to be coordinated to ignite and sustain a global recovery.
Clean up of the balance sheets of the financial institutions, introduction of better risk management policies and practices, and injection of more capital would together establish the preconditions for credit to the real sectors to flow in volumes that are required for the recovery.
Concerns on debt sustainability, sovereign risks, prolonged accommodative monetary policies, and anemic recovery are already affecting currency markets in terms of exchange rate volatility as well as capital flows to countries that offer higher expected returns.
As a result, countries in developing Asia could confront the global financial crisis with a stronger set of initial macroeconomic conditions than the advanced economies.
While the framework for monetary policy in terms of inflation targeting continues to be sound, an important lesson of the global financial crisis is the need to monitor and check asset bubbles.
Strengthened emphasis on macroeconomic policy prudence, continued good prospects for growth, and exchange rate flexibility that would most likely cause currencies to appreciate in developing Asia vis- à-vis currencies of advanced economies would attract a flood of capital inflows that would lead to further currency appreciation."
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