چکیده:
The purpose of this study is to identify and measure the impact of the
main determinants of the international tourist arrivals to the Malaysia.
The annual panel data set includes the number of arrivals from the 19 most
important European countries during the period 1998–2007, and a number
of possible explanatory variables. Taking into account the changing
structure of consumer preferences, a dynamic model is estimated. The
results suggest that the habit persistence (word-of-mouth), income,
accommodation capacity (hotel rooms) and political stability have positive
effects on European tourism demand in Malaysia. One of the main
conclusions of the study is the significant value of the lagged dependent
variable (0.52), which may be interpreted as a major word-of-mouth effect
on tourism demand in Malaysia. In addition, the dynamic panel data
estimation highlights the importance of the accommodation capacity as the
most important factor in attracting more tourism to Malaysia.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Iranian Economic Review, Vol. 15, No. 29, Spring 2011 Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of European Tourism Demand in Malaysia Fateh Habibi∗ Hossein Abbasinejad∗∗ Received: 2011/01/06 Accepted: 2011/04/24 T he purpose of this study is to identify and measure the impact of the main determinants of the international tourist arrivals to the Malaysia.
Most of the existing empirical studies have used tourist arrivals/departures for example, Ouerfelli (2008), Mervar (2007), Dritsakis (2004) and tourism receipts/expenditures as dependent variables Hanly and Wade (2007), Algieri (2006), Mervare (2002).
A number of study in tourism demand have used panel data analysis for example, Naude and Saayman (2005) used static panel data regression, using a generalized least squares method (GLS) and dynamic panel data regression, using the Arellano-Bond first-step GMM estimator to investigate the determinants of tourist arrivals in 43 African countries.
(2009) investigate tourism demand to Malaysia using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), and the results indicate that the coefficient of tourism price variables are statistically significant and negative sign, indicates that an increase in price of tourism goods and services result to decrease tourist arrivals to Malaysia.
The model to be estimated would be {مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} 34/ Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of European Tourism Demand in Malaysia Where, i is an unobserved country-specific effect and it is the error term.
These results are consistent with some previous studies which also found a significant positive effect on tourist arrivals (Kulendran and Drivisekera, 2007; Mohd Salleh et al, 2007; Naude and Saayman, 2005; Song et al, 2003 Teresa Munoz, 2007; Teresa and Martin, 2007).