چکیده:
در اﻳﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻦ ارزشﮔﺬاری ﺑﺎﻻی ﺣﻘﻮق ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎن ﺳـﻬﺎم و اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪی اﺧﺘﻴﺎری در ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎی ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘـﻪ ﺷـﺪه در ﺑـﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬـﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس دادهﻫﺎی 68 ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻃﻲ دوره 88-2831 ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ﺷـﺪه اﺳـﺖ. اﺑﺘﺪا ﺑﻪ ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪی ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ ارزش ﺣﻘﻮق ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎن ﺳﻬﺎم آنﻫﺎ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه و ﺳﭙﺲ ﺳﻪ ﻧﻮع آزﻣﻮن ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ، آزﻣﻮن -tاﺳـﺘﻴﻮدﻧﺖ دو ﻧﻤﻮﻧـﻪای ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ، ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﻲ و ﻣﺪل رﮔﺮﺳﻴﻮن ﺑﺮای ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪﻫﺎ ﺑﻪﻛﺎرﮔﺮﻓﺘـﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از آزﻣﻮن ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪﻫـﺎی ﺗﺤﻘﻴـﻖ، ﺑﻴـﺎﻧﮕﺮ آن اﺳـﺖ ﻛـﻪ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎی ﺑﺎﻻ ارزشﮔﺬاری ﺷﺪه در ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎی ﺑـﺎ ارزشﮔـﺬاری ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ، اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪی اﺧﺘﻴﺎری ﺟـﺎری ﺑـﻴﺶﺗـﺮی را در ﺳـﺎل ﺟـﺎری ﮔـﺰارش ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ ﻧﻤﻮد و ﻫﻢﭼﻨﻴﻦ راﺑﻄﻪی ﻣﻌﻜﻮس ﺑﻴﻦ ﺟﺮﻳﺎن وﺟـﻮه ﻧﻘـﺪ ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺎﺗﻲ و اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪی اﺧﺘﻴﺎری ﺟﺎری ﻋﻠﻲرﻏﻢ اﻳﻦﻛﻪ در ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎی ﺑﺎﻻ ارزشﮔـﺬاری ﺷﺪه ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎی ﺑﺎ ارزشﮔﺬاری ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ، از ﺷﺪت ﺑـﺎﻻﺗﺮی ﺑﺮﺧـﻮردار اﺳﺖ؛ اﻣﺎ اﻳﻦ اﺧﺘﻼف در ﺳﻄﺢ 5% ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار ﻧﻴﺴﺖ.
Introduction: This research investigates the relation between overvaluing of equity and discretionary accruals. The statistical population was taken from listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange، and sample of 86 listed companies was surveyed.
High value of equity provides a strong incentive for managers to report earnings that do not disappoint the market. Jensen (2005) argued the overvalued firms can suffer from adverse consequences because of extreme valuation that encourages managers to act in ways that are detrimental to the long run value of their firms. For example when a firm becomes more overvalued، the pressure to meet increasingly unrealistic earnings targets becomes greater. We use two measures to identify overvalued firms: a) the price-earnings ratio and b) abnormal return. We stratify firms into three classes based on a procedure using both high prior-year P/E ratio and high prior-year abnormal return. Firms in highest class are classified as highly valued and are predicted to have higher future discretionary accruals.
In summary، we hypothesize that an unusually high P/E ratio or unusually high prior-year abnormal return provides a manager with strong incentives to meet the implied market expectation for earning.
Research hypotheses
In this research we posit the following hypotheses،
H1: Highly valued firms (firms with both high prior-year P/E ratio and high prior-year abnormal returns) will exhibit higher current year discretionary accruals levels relative to firms with lower valuations.
H2: The inverse relationship between operating cash flow and discretionary accruals has higher R square for highly valued firms than firms with lower valuations.
Methods: In this study we used three procedures for testing of hypothesis: a) Regression models، b) Independent- sample T- Test that compares means for two groups of cases and c) Bivariate Correlation that computes Pearson's correlation coefficient.
Results: The results of hypotheses test are represented as follows:
First hypothesis has tested in two procedures:
1- Independent sample T-Test: results of comparing average discretionary accruals in highly valued firms and firms with low valuation indicate the average discretionary accrual is higher in highly valued firms than firms with low valuation; therefore، first hypothesis is accepted.
2- Application of regression models:
Results of investigating of regression model indicate that the highly valuing variable is confirming.
Second hypothesis has tested in two procedures too:
1- Bivariate correlation: in this procedure for testing of second hypothesis the Pearson correlation coefficient has been computed for two groups of firms and results indicate: a) the relation between operating cash flow and discretionary current accruals is inverse and b) quantity of this coefficient is more negative in highly valued firms than firm with low valuation but although the negative coefficients quantity indicates inverse relation in highly valued، it isn’t statistically significant at the 5% level; therefore، the second research hypothesis is not conforming.
2- The regression model: The results of investigating of model coefficients indicate although the negative coefficients quantity of interaction term HV*OCF indicates a strong inverse relation in highly valued، it isn’t statistically significant at the 5% level.
Discussion and Conclusion:This paper provides evidence consistent with over valuation hypothesis that predicts that managers of highly valued firms have strong incentives to manage earnings up wards. The evidence suggests that high valuation increases the likelihood of earning management. Our results suggest that prices can drive accruals in contrast to the typical model where accruals drive price.
One implication for directors is that they should be particularly conscious of potential earnings manipulation when their firms have extremely high valuation multiples.
خلاصه ماشینی:
" ﻣﺠﻠﻪ ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺖﻫﺎی ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، دوره ﭼﻬﺎرم، ﺷﻤﺎره دوم، ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰ و زﻣﺴﺘﺎن 1931 291 ﻧﮕﺎره 4: آﻣﺎر ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻔﻲ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎی اﺻﻠﻲ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﭘﺲ از ﺣﺬف ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪات دور اﻓﺘﺎده ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس اﻟﮕﻮی ﺷﻤﺎرهی ﻳﻚ )ارﻗﺎم ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮن رﻳﺎل( ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﺗﻌﺪاد ﺳﺎل ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ ﺣﺪاﻛﺜﺮ اﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎر ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ - ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ارزش 649835 314514- 46693/83069 00/8813 98/1382- 151 ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ اﻗﻼم 321908 612306- 81323/339301 00/72121 19/79642 252 ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻌﻬﺪی 559956 976573- 13914/684301 00/65421 18/60872 351 ﺑﺎﻻ ﺟﺎری )(CA 321908 612306- 78507/253201 0573/3519 08/67081 655 ﺟﻤﻊ ﻛﻞ 8617264 00/79643 56486/051967 0/932033 2/368985 151 ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺟﻤﻊ داراﻳﻲ 1875225 00/35162 01890/003317 5/951892 4/787135 252 ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻫﺎ )1-(At 4980963 00/28293 23951/397285 0/207772 2/902874 351 ﺑﺎﻻ 1875225 00/35162 01837/670896 6/781992 1/618235 655 ﺟﻤﻊ ﻛﻞ 0/746336 616235- 00809/785231 00/83851 73/05143 151 ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات در 0/851797 057974- 78125/028621 00/85862 44/42615 252 ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﺮوش 0/672906 900024- 60565/019511 00/31283 93/47936 351 ﺑﺎﻻ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ )(REV 0/851797 616235- 28188/808521 00/14182 42/77205 655 ﺟﻤﻊ ﻛﻞ ﻧﮕﺎره 5: آﻣﺎر ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻔﻲ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎی اﺻﻠﻲ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﭘﺲ از ﺣﺬف ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪات دور اﻓﺘﺎده ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎی ﺷﻤﺎرهی دو و ﺳﻪ: ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﺳﺎل ﺣﺪاﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ اﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎر ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ - ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻟﺤﺎظ ارزش 05/153 03/26- 01754/95 0000/33 8537/23 151 ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺑﺎزده ﻏﻴﺮ ﻋﺎدی )(abnRET 01/084 01/012- 38171/07 0057/8 4325/12 252 ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ 09/704 00/341- 97203/96 0005/6 7665/71 351 ﺑﺎﻻ 01/084 01/012- 14323/76 0009/9 7974/32 655 ﺟﻤﻊ ﻛﻞ 74/51 66/01 45320/1 3588/21 1448/21 151 ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﻟﮕﺎرﻳﺘﻢ 05/51 52/01 52650/1 7867/21 1387/21 252 ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ داراﻳﻲ ﻫﺎ lnAssETS 53/51 08/01 29769/0 2287/21 1038/21 351 ﺑﺎﻻ 05/51 52/01 72220/1 2408/21 6218/21 655 ﺟﻤﻊ ﻛﻞ ارزشﮔﺬاری ﺑﺎﻻی ﺣﻘﻮق ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎن ﺳﻬﺎم و ارﺗﺒﺎط آن ﺑﺎ اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪی اﺧﺘﻴﺎری 391 ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﺳﺎل ﺣﺪاﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ اﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎر ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ - ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻟﺤﺎظ ارزش 00/278999 007004- 87434/370151 00/96603 83/59587 151 ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺟﺮﻳﺎن وﺟﻮه ﻧﻘﺪ 00/588518 593115- 00534/170841 00/07023 32/11367 252 ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺗﻲ )(CFO 00/762799 893944- 79005/160151 00/38173 55/12059 351 ﺑﺎﻻ 00/278999 593115- 67227/856941 00/07023 31/97128 655 ﺟﻤﻊ ﻛﻞ 29393/0 54083/0- 47109021/0 959701/0- 4320600/0- 151 ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪی 45567/0 55996/0- 29149551/0 0972320/0 2404320/0 252 ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﺧﺘﻴﺎری ﺟﺎری )(DiscCA 58749/0 68027/0- 84235571/0 5861910/0 5009920/0 351 ﺑﺎﻻ 58749/0 68027/0- 2680351/0 949401/0 899171/0 655 ﺟﻤﻊ ﻛﻞ ﻧﮕﺎره 6: آﻣﺎر ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻔﻲ ارزشﮔﺬاری ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ ﭘﺲ از ﺣﺬف ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪات دور اﻓﺘﺎده درﺻﺪ ﻓﺮاواﻧﻲ اﻧﺒﺎﺷﺘﻪ درﺻﺪ اﻋﺘﺒﺎر ﺑﺮﺣﺴﺐ درﺻﺪ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی 2/72 2/72 6/62 151 ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ 5/27 3/54 4/44 252 ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ 001 5/72 9/62 351 ﺑﺎﻻ - 001 9/79 655 ﺟﻤﻊ - - 1/2 21 ﮔﻤﺸﺪه - - 001 865 ﺟﻤﻊ ﻛﻞ دو ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺑﺎزده ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ) (neg RETو زﻳﺎن ) (Loosدر اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎ، ﭼﻨﺎنﭼﻪ ﺷـﺮﻛﺖ ﺑـﺎزده ﻣﻨﻔﻲ داﺷﺘﻪ و ﻳﺎ زﻳﺎن ده ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ، ﻣﻘﺪار اﻳﻦ دو ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ در اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎ ﻳـﻚ و در ﻏﻴـﺮ اﻳـﻦﺻـﻮرت ﺻﻔﺮ اﺳﺖ."