خلاصه ماشینی:
"Indicators of Financial Instability Mehdi Monadjemi & John Lodewijks1 Received: 28 Apr 2009 Accept: 1 Jun 2009 Abstract A global Slowdown, rising oil prices, and monetary tightening in industrial countries may lead to net capital outflows which accentuate high ratios of short-term to total external debt.
Crises in Latin America and Asia stand out in indicating the severity of the resulting economic dislocation and how quickly it can spread to other countries (Prasad, Rogoff, Wei & Kose, 2003).
2- Identifying and Timing of Financial Crises A measure of external market pressure was first introduced by Girton and Roper (1977) and it consisted of two components, changes in official reserves and changes in exchange rates.
We have discussed this ‗surprising‘ episode elsewhere 44 Money and Economy, Vol. 5, No. 2 (Lodewijks & Monadjemi 2004) and it is apparent that capital flows became larger and more volatile after the deregulation of financial markets in mid 1980s.
Caballero, Cowan & Kearns (2004) argue that there are at least three ingredients that helped Australia during the recent episode: (i) Australia had no concern (at least in relative terms) with capital flow reversals; (ii) Australia could count on ex-ante external hedging against exchange rate fluctuations; and (iii) Australian banks had access to a deep currency derivatives market to insulate themselves (and their borrowers) from exchange rate fluctuations.
Four indicators – the current account balance, exchange rate, interest rate and foreign reserves – appear the most sensitive macroeconomic variables to external shocks, particularly in less sophisticated financial systems."