چکیده:
This paper surveys the persian monetary crises due to economic sanctions and speculative attacks that leads to high inflation. Economic sanctions are associated with various forms of trade barriers and restriction on financial transactions. Among the most influential sanctions on Iran's oil export and central bank sanctions are noted that their Aims to reduce Iran's oil revenues and Devaluation of the national currency of Iran. New economic sanctions have greatest effect on foreign currency transactions and foreign currency speculative attacks can lead to devaluation of the national currency to be stimulated inflationary pressures. This study introduced a new inflation function based on Neo-Keynesian framework in the case of oil exporting counties. Also dynamics of speculative attacks based on Markov Regime-Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) model is used to capture some of the exchange rate dynamics associated with the speculative attacks. The results of co-integration vector estimation using the FMOLS approach indicated that speculative attacks have positive effect on inflation but sanctions affect inflation indirectly through speculative attacks, stagnation, currency crisis, expected inflation and etc.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"It is clear that economic sanctions are associated with oil revenue decreasing and declination of foreign currency supply in the Iranian economy and also, based on this fact that available foreign exchange reserve is restricted, this subject will promote investor to make speculative attack.
Thus, this study examines the effect of economic sanctions and speculative attack on high inflation in Iranian economy based on Neo- Keynesian framework in the case of oil exporting counties.
Based on the results policy suggestions to reduce high inflation in Iranian economy are: Active diplomacy aimed at breaking the economic sanctions, Join trade unions for breaking sanctions, reducing the share of dollar portfolio transactions in order to reduce the economy's dependence on dollar, allowing the exchange rate to move within wide margins in the short run but within narrow margins in the long run, raising interest rate to make strung the currency in the short run as a signal of the government’s willingness or ability to defend the exchange rate (it can potentially deter a speculative attacks) and not in the long run because this policy leads to an expected depreciation and an increasing in the risk premium in the long run, strong monetary authority to face a lower probability of speculative attacks, Diversify exports and reduced dependence on oil revenue, increase in trade openness and competitiveness of local products, Reducing the rate of increased liquidity in the economy, and Spending of oil revenues to support investment and production activities in the country."