چکیده:
Nigeria is among many African countries that have engaged in agricultural liberalization
since 1986 in the hope that reforms emphasizing price incentives will encourage producers
to respond. Hitherto, the reforms seem to have introduced greater uncertainty into the
market given increasing rates of price volatility. This study therefore models supply
responses in Nigerian Rice production that include the standard arguments as well as price
risk. Statistical information on domestic and imported quantities of rice was obtained for 41
years (1970 to 2011) from the AGROSTAT system of the statistical division of the Food
and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Federal Ministry of Agriculture statistical bulletins,
Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins and National Bureau of Statistic. (NBS). The
data are analyzed using descriptive, equilibrium output supply function and co-integration
models and vector autoregressive distributed lag. Rice importation showed a negative sign
and was statistically significant with changes in output also responsive to changes in price.
The results indicate that producers are more responsive not only to price and non-price
factor but to price risk and exchange rate. It is therefore imperative to reduce price risk as to
increase the response of producer to supply by bridging the gap in production
خلاصه ماشینی:
ISSN 2382-9745 ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY RESPONSE AND PRICE RISK ON RICE PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA Ayinde O.
This study therefore models supply responses in Nigerian Rice production that include the standard arguments as well as price risk.
Keyword: Agricultural production, Price risk, Supply response, Rice and Nigeria * Corresponding author: opeayinde@yahoo.
High cost of production as a result of increase in price of input, low farm income, low efficiency of resource utilization and inadequate capital are some of the other reasons responsible for shortage in rice to augment local supply.
Knowledge of the impact of other variable on the response of production is important for policy makers important variables include, input prices, changes in technology, farm management, risk and financial constraint must be considered in studying the response of production for this study is more realistic and useful (Kerney and Hertel, 2008).
Following the model output supply is determined by adopting a double logarithmic form as follows: lnQt = ß0 + ß1lnHA1+ß3lnMt + ß4lnRF + Ut All variable in natural logarithm form Vector Auto regression Model This model will also be used to estimate the responsiveness of rice supply to changes in price risk using this model variable will be fitted into model to co-integrate.
Hence this study conducted a Johansen co-integration test for the linear UCT Journal of Management and Accounting Studies combination of the series in the output supply response model for rice.