نویسنده: mousaei، maysam؛
زمستان 1383 - شماره 12 ISC (16 صفحه - از 127 تا 142)
کلید واژه های ماشینی : Iran ، The Center Political Studies Research ، Tourism ، Gross Domestic Product ، Demand Supply International Tourism Iran ، The Conditions International Tourism Iran ، Demand ، In Iran ، International Demand Tourism Iran ، Center Applied Research
In this paper the factors having influence on travel demand to Iran are paper explored. The hypothesis of the research specifies the variable of “domestic upheavals and insecurity” as the most significant obstacle to expansion of the demand for travel to Iran. To test the above hypothesis, first several demand models that have been proposed to study demand for tourism in different countries, are briefly reviewed, and then in a macro model the function of demand for travel to Iran is estimated using econometrics methods. The substantial finding is that, at the present time, the low demand for travel to Iran is not due to insufficient infrastructures and facilities, in regard to accommodations and transportation, but it is the element of “insecurity” that is the most significant hindrance to the demand growth for travel to Iran. Hence, to increase the travel demand to Iran and eliminate the present impediments, alongside economic solutions, it is necessary to elevate the security related obstacles.خلاصه ماشینی:
"Key words: Tourism- Iran- Travel demand I- Introduction At the present time, tourism industry has developed extensively worldwide, and through which many countries have been able to improve their own conditions substantially, and overcome some of their economic problems including low per capita income, high unemployment and insufficient foreign exchange revenues. The present essay, utilizes the most recent available data and statistics using a model that is introduced for this purpose to estimate the sum total of the international demand for tourism in Iran. Y: Tourism revenue in the previous period, Dum : Dummy variables to consider political and social issues and the war during the past 20 years, U: The residual component According to the demand theory in economics, it is anticipated that: a1<0 a2>0 a3>0 To calculate the above equation, the following variables are defined and substituted: TRREV: Foreign exchange revenue from tourism, instead of variable Y :The ratio of the consumer price index in Iran to the global consumer price index, instead of X(1369=1990=100), $GDPworld: Global gross domestic products (dollars), instead of the variable X TRREV(-1) : Foreign exchange revenue earned from tourism during the previous period, instead of variable Y DUM78: Dummy variable to consider the impacts of the first year of the Islamic Revolution, DUM7987: Dummy variable to consider the impacts of the war Including these variables and considering the resultant of the introduced equation, and also elimination of the auto-correlations from the residual components of the equation, using the models of “Moving Average” (MA) and “Auto Regressive” (AR), the following final results were obtained: Log(TRREV)=3."
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