a fuzzy approach for projects evaluation and selection; an iranian auto manufacturer case study
زمستان 1384 - شماره 15 ISC (15 صفحه - از 171 تا 185)
کلید واژه های ماشینی : Project Portfolio Selection Decision Support ، Ranking Alternatives Using Fuzzy Numbers ، New Product Portfolio Management ، Portfolio Management New Product Development ، Fuzzy Cash Flow Analysis Using ، Decision Support Systems ، Transactions Engineering Management ، The Engineering Economist ، IEEE Transactions Engineering ، Manufacturing Systems Using Fuzzy
Evaluating and selecting alternatives investment projects needs considering all relevant and important aspects. In traditional methods, the focus is just on tangible monetary criteria. Also in the traditional methods, either all the information''''s about factors must be known precisely or sufficient objective data must be available for applying probability theory. In this paper, a combinative approach is employed to integrate all monetary factors, subjective non monetary factors and also objective non monetary factors in decision making process of project evaluation and selection. In the proposed approach to deal with uncertainty in monetary criteria and also vagueness of human thought in subjective non monetary criteria, fuzzy cash flow analysis and multi criteria decision making method are applied, respectively. As a case study, this methodology has been applied for evaluation of an Iranian auto manufacturer’s projects. The results depict that the methodology can vastly help decision makers to evaluate projects under vague and uncertain circumstances considering all important criteria.خلاصه ماشینی:
"In the proposed approach to deal with uncertainty in monetary criteria and also vagueness of human thought in subjective non monetary criteria, fuzzy cash flow analysis and multi criteria decision making method are applied, respectively. Project selection methods can usually be placed into one of the following categories: · Unstructured peer review; · Scoring; · Mathematical programming, including integer programming (IP), linear programming (LP), nonlinear programming (NLP), goal programming (GP), and dynamic programming (DP); · Economic models, such as internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), return on investment (ROI), cost-benefit analysis, and option pricing theory; [6,7] · Decision analysis, including multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), decision trees, risk analysis, and the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP); · Interactive methods, such as Delphi, Q-sort, Behavioral decision aids (BDA), and Decentralized hierarchical modeling (DHM); · Artificial intelligence (AI), including expert systems and fuzzy sets; · Portfolio optimization. In this paper, an integrated approach is proposed to consider all tangible and intangible factors in project selection decision making, using fuzzy cash flow analysis and fuzzy multi-criteria decision making method. Step2 The following evaluation criteria were considered: C1: Net present value C2: Competency with similar type domestic products C3: Flexibility for project abandonment C4: Products export chance C5: Meeting public regulations for pollution Step 3 The experts team decided to group C1 as monetary criteria and the others as non monetary criteria."
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