چکیده:
The aim of this paper is to project extreme precipitation events in an arid and a semiarid station. In order to project climate change based on general circulation models (GCMs), we have applied LARS-WG1 downscaling tool. This stochastic weather generator down-scaled the climate of two synoptic stations using HADCM3 model and A2 emission scenario for 2040. We extracted extreme precipitation events, as daily 90th and 10th percentile for rainy days (considered if daily precipitation was greater than 1 mm), for based and projected data. The research outcomes showed an increase both in 90th percentile by 13 mm and in 10th percentile by 0.2 mm in arid station, Bandar Abbas. In the semiarid station, Shahrekord, the 90th percentile precipitation increased by 6.1 mm and the 10th percentile precipitation decreased by 3.4 mm. In total, for both stations, 90th percentile precipitations showed a more stable trend than the 10th percentile.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation events in arid (Bandar Abbas) and semi-arid (Shahrekord) stations in Iran Zahra Jamali; MSc Graduated on Combatting Desertification, Hormozgan University, Bandar Abbas, Iran.
However in this paper, we intend to project climate change effects on extreme precipitation events (90th and 10th percentile of daily precipitation) according to general circulation models (GCMs) and LARS-WG downscaling tool.
The 90th PTP for baseline and projected data for semi-arid station (Sharekord) shows a similar decreasing trend (Fig. 4).
Trend analysis of 90th PTP (mm) for baseline and projected data under A2 scenario in arid station, Bandar Abbas (View the image of this page) Fig. 4.
The RH 90th PP to the annual total precipitation trend decreased for projected data, however it increased for baseline in both stations (Figs.
Trend analysis of RH 90th PP (%) to total annual precipitation of baseline and projected data under scenario A2 in arid station (BandarAbbas) Fig. 8.
Trend analysis of the RH 90th PP (%) to total annual precipitation of baseline and projected data under scenario A2 in semi-arid station, Sharekord (View the image of this page) Fig. 9.
Trend analysis of RH 10th PP to total annual precipitation in baseline (a) and projected data (b) under scenario A2 in the arid station (BandarAbbas) (View the image of this page) Fig. 10.
Trend analysis of the F 90thPPe (day) for baseline and projected data under scenario A2 in semi- arid station, Sharekord (View the image of this page) Fig. 14.