چکیده:
The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of maritime transportation instability on international trade instability based on wavelet smoothing and spatial panel data econometric method during the period 1990-2012. The results showed that the spatial effects have an impact on international trade instability. So that a sudden 100 percent increase in international trade in the neighboring countries will reduce 38 percent of trading in own countries. Evaluation of the results of spillovers elasticity of international trade instability showed that maritime transportation did not have a significant impact on international trade fluctuations and geographical concentration is the most important variable of instability in international trade.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Most of research conducted in this area, have addressed the impact of exchange rate instability, geographic concentration and commodity concentration on international trade instability, which among them we can indicate to the studies of Hooper and Kohlhagen (1979), Cushman (1983), Peree Steinherr (1989), Bahmani Oskooee Latifa (1992), Yousefi (2000), Vergil (2002), Hondroyiannis et al.
(2008), Bahmani- Oskooee and Kandil (2010), Trinh (2012) regarding to exchange rate instability, and Studies of Massell (1970), Macbean (1966), Massell (1970), Naya (1973), Souter (1977), Love (1987 1992), Tariq Najib (1995), Tegen (2000), Sileshi (2003), Devkota (2004), Xin Liu (2008) and Çakir and Kabundi (2011) in the case of commodity and geographic concentration.
Accordingly, in this study, using wavelet smoothing, we investigated the factors affecting the instability of international trade with an emphasis on fluctuations in the maritime transport by using data from 34 significant countries in world international trade and maritime transport, which have more than 75 percent of world international trade and period from 1990 to 2012 through Spatial Panel data and Maximum likelihood Estimation method (ML).
2. Theoretical Framework Reviewing the past, development of what is today as a standard theory of international trade returns in the years between 1776 and 1826; initiated respectively, with the publication of the "Wealth of Nations" by Adam Smith (1776), based on the theory of absolute advantage and "Principles of Economics" by David Ricardo (1828-1772), based on the theory of Comparative Advantage.