چکیده:
Considering Russia’s rich and vast oil resources, this country is one of the world’s greatest producers and exporters of this nonrenewable energy resource, and like other petrostates, receives a major part of its national income in this way. The dependence of Russia’s budget on oil has raised the significance of world oil price fluctuations for this country. Since 1970s, the global oil market has experienced numerous shocks, which have in turn, had significant effects on Russia’s economy. Therefore, the theoretical study of oil shocks and their historical impact on Russia’s economy, as well as the policies adopted by this country to reduce the effects of those shocks, is considered a practical issue for Iran’s oil-based economy. The outcomes of this research indicate the positive impact of historical oil shocks on Russia’s economic growth. The establishment of a stabilization fund in 2004 and its development into the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund in 2010 are considered to be this country’s most important policy in reaction to oil price shocks
خلاصه ماشینی:
Oil Price Shocks and Russia’s Economic Growth: The Impacts and Policies for Overcoming Them Liudmila Popova1, Farkhondeh Jabalameli2, Ehsan Rasoulinezhad3* 1.
This article first presents the historical and analytical impacts of oil price shocks on the economic growth of the Russian Federation (the former Soviet Union up to the early 90s and Russia thence) during the years 1972 to 2014, and analyzes the Russian stabilization fund as the country’s most prominent policy against the negative impacts of oil shocks.
However, according to studies such as Ito (2012), Shibanova-Roenko and Guznova (2012), as well as Rasoulinezhad (2014), Russia’s economic growth has had a positive relationship with oil price shocks since the dissolution of the Soviet Union during the 90s.
On the other hand, when there is a negative shock in the oil price, the state budget will face a severe deficit; consequently, the governments will attempt to obtain international funds, as well as loans from other countries, which would, in turn, increase their foreign debt (Auty, 2004).
The changes (%) in the economic growth and the crude oil production of the Russian Federation during the oil price shocks (1972- 2014) References: World Bank, Worldwide Inflation Data, the budget system of the Russian Federation, the International Monetary Bank 21 {مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} 22 {مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} (view the image of this page) Fig. 5.
Furthermore, the study of the two variables of economic growth and inflation in Russia (the Soviet Union before 1991) indicated that this country has not experienced a significant change in its inflation during the oil price shocks, except in 1998 (during Russia’s financial crisis).