چکیده:
This paper is an attempt investigating the relationship between sanctions implications and geographical shift in trading partners. To this end, we analyze separately foreign trade patterns of two countries namely Iran and Russia - which are under imposed sanctions experience - with two United Nations Regional Groups (The Asia-Pacific and the Western European groups) using a gravity model. The gravity models are estimated over two different time periods: (i) 2006-2015 for Iran and (ii) 2008-2016 for Russia. The main results provide evidence supporting the Asianization and de-Europeanization of Iran and Russia under sanctions which proves the hypothesis of geographical shift in trading partners under imposing sanctions. However, sanctions have stronger impacts on modifications of Iran’s foreign trade rather than Russian shift in trading partners.
خلاصه ماشینی:
To this end, we analyze separately foreign trade patterns of two countries namely Iran and Russia - which are under imposed sanctions experience - with two United Nations Regional Groups (The Asia-Pacific and the Western European groups) using a gravity model.
In this study, we employ a gravity model, recently developed by Rosoulinezhad and Seong Kang (2016 ) to model bilateral trade flow between a target economy and its trade partners in the Western European and Asia-Pacific regions to find out how sanctions can impact shift in trading partners.
According to the theoretical framework of the gravity model, it is expected that economy size and income would have positive impacts on trade volume and encourage trade between a target (Iran/Russia) and her trading partners, including the Western European states and Asia-Pacific countries.
The estimation findings of “Model II” for the trade of Iran - Asia Pacific region depict that income (GDP per capita) increases the bilateral trade volume, while similar to the first model estimation result, distance and sanctions have a significant negative impact on the trade volume.
The estimation results prove that imposing sanctions against Russia pushes this country towards shift in trading partners from the Western European members to the Asia-Pacific countries.
For this purpose, we employ the gravity trade model comprising a dummy variable of sanctions and run it for bilateral trade patterns of two recent targets of sanctions (Iran and Russia) in the world economy and two United Nations Countries groups (The Western European States and the Asia-Pacific countries).