چکیده:
اهداف: هدف اصلی پژوهش، شناسایی موانع و چالشهای مصرف بهینۀ آب در بخش کشاورزی نواحی روستایی شهرستان گنبد کاووس است. روش: پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف، کاربردی و به لحاظ روش شناسی، از نوع توصیفی- تحلیلی است. جامعة آماری آن را 56 نفر از کارشناسان دستگاههای اجرایی آب منطقهای، جهاد کشاورزی، مراکز آموزش عالی تشکیل دادهاند. دادههای مورد نیاز از طریق مصاحبه و تکمیل پرسش نامه جمع آوری شد و با استفاده از نرم افزار SMART-PLS (معادلات ساختاری و حداقل مربعات جزیی) فرآیند تحلیل صورت گرفت. آلفای کرانباخ کلیة عوامل بزرگ تر از 70/ 0 به دست آمد که حاکی از پایایی مناسب مدل دارد. یافته ها/نتایج: نتایج خروجی مدل معادلات ساختاری نشان داد، مقدار ضریب t مربوط به روابط بین متغیر وابسته "موانع مصرف بهینة آب" و عوامل چهارگانه و متغیرها در تمام موارد بزرگتر از 96/ 1 و در سطح اطمینان 95درصد دارای معناداری میباشد. در این میان، عامل اجتماعی در رتبة اول اثرگذاری چالش مصرف بهینة آب کشاورزی از دیدگاه کارشناسان عنوان شد، به طوری که ضریب مسیر عامل مذکور برابر 802/ 0 و عوامل مدیریتی، اقتصادی و طبیعی با ضریب تعیین مسیر 703/ 0، 513/ 0 و 345/ 0در ردة دوم تا چهارم قرار گرفتند. از مهمترین زیرشاخصهای عامل اجتماعی که در پایین بودن مصرف بهینة آب اثرگذار هستند، میتوان به پایین بودن سطح سواد کشاورزان، استقبال نکردن کشاورزان از روشهای جدید آبیاری، عدم پذیرش الگویهای کشت معرفی شده توسط زارعین، تمایل کشاورزان نسبت به کشت محصولات با نیاز آبی بالا، پایین بودن سطح آموزشهای ترویجی و تحقیقاتی، بیتوجهی به کشت محصولات با دورة زراعی کوتاه توسط کشاورزان و... اشاره کرد. همچنین، نبود طرحهای آمایشی آب، ضعف در ارائة یک برنامة جامع تقویمی کشت، گسترش و حفر چاههای عمیق در دهههای قبل، نبود یا فرسودگی سامانههای زهکشی آب، عدم توجه جدی به لایروبی کانالهای آبیاری، کمبود نیروی انسانی (کارشناس)، در کنار گستردگی حوزة جغرافیایی فعالیت امور آب شهرستان از اهم مولفههای عامل مدیریتی–نهادی از دیدگاه کارشناسان محسوب میشوند، ضمن اینکه کمبود اعتبارات، سیاستهای تشویقی –حمایتی، خشکسالیهای دهههای اخیر، بادهای گرم و خشک، پراکندگی اراضی و قطعات زمین در مقایسه با سایر متغیرهای مورد بررسی عامل اقتصادی و طبیعی، بیشترین نقش را در کاهش مصرف بهینة آب دارند. برازش کلی (GOF) مدل پژوهش برابر 0. 55 به دست آمد که حاکی از برازش قوی آن است. نتیجهگیری: طبیعتا شناخت موانع مصرف بهینة آب در بخش کشاورزی و اثرگذاری میزان هریک از شاخصهای موثر میتواند در برنامه ریزیهای حال و به ویژه آیندة این حوزه کمک شایانی نماید. این پژوهش از دیدگاه کارشناسان نشان داد، عامل اجتماعی و مدیریتی در مقایسه با عوامل اقتصادی و طبیعی بهعنوان چالش مصرف بهینۀ آب، اثرگذاری بیشتری در کشاورزی دارند.
Introduction:
The reduction of water supplies and unprincipled consumption coupled with lack of attention to its resulting challenges have brought about numerous issues for agriculture and the economic status of Iranian rural residents at a macro scale. Accordingly, paying attention to the management of water consumption has shifted from a secondary issue to a substantial problem (FAO, 2055, p. 56). According to UN reports, 72. 3% of water supplies in Iran has already been used, placing the country under severely critical conditions; subsequently, water shortage is considered as an ecological reality in the agriculture sector. Therefore, given the population growth and increasing demand for water resources, it is vital to seek out solutions in line with optimized water consumption which is addressed in the present study.
Review of Literature and Theoretical Framework:
Considering the 1170 m3 of water per capita in Iran (one seventh of the global average) , the country is faced with severe water crisis; in this regard, water supplies have shrunk from 220 billion m3 in 1961 to less than 90 billion m3 and 149 billion m3 in 2015 and 2017-18, respectively. Certain researchers believe that Iran currently suffers from “water bankruptcy”, pointing out seventeen factors as the main accelerators of the current issues in the area of water supplies which include: rapid population growth, expansion of immigrations and urbanization, inadequate infrastructure for water distribution, declining levels of groundwater supplies, inefficient agriculture, the aspiration for food self-sufficiency, increased demands for water, water and cheap energy, construction of dams and unregulated digging of deep wells, drought, flood, climate change, thirst for development, unfinished hydraulic missions, sanctions and economic instability, unsuitable structure in governance over water, and low levels of environmental
awareness. As a result, it can be observed that aside from climate change and frequent droughts, the status quo of water supplies in Iran is the result of years of mismanagement and incorrect understanding of the concept of development. Through this perspective, the current drought in Iran can be considered as “human drought” or “socioeconomic drought” (Madani et al. , 2016) ; moreover, it is apparent that water supplies in Iran have not been utilized in a principled, developmental manner (Khashe’ei Siouki, 2011). Subsequently, this sector is now faced with severe limitations which, according to the documents on the fourth, fifth, and sixth Socioeconomic and Cultural Development Programs of Iran, involves natural, social, economic, and administrative factors and barriers. The present study is an attempt identify and compare the most important barriers and factors against optimized water consumption in the agriculture sector using the views of experts and operators in the region of the study. Furthermore, a number of suitable strategies are presented in line with mitigating these challenges.
Method:
The purpose of this study is to identify the barriers and challenges against optimized water consumption in the agriculture sector. It is an applied study conducted using the exploratory and descriptive-analytical methods. The required data were collected by seeking the opinions of 56 experts working in Gonbad-e-Kavus executive and educational bodies on the field of water and agriculture as well as 405 farmers from 6 villages in this town; sample population was indicated using Cochran’s formula. The collected data were analyzed using softwares including SPSS and SMART-PLS (structural equations and least squares).
Results and Discussion:
Given the obtained results, the most important challenge that affects optimized water consumption from the view of experts was identified as “the social factor”; it consists of farmers’ low literacy levels, inadequate presence of farmers’ representatives in water-related affairs, farmers’ willingness to cultivate products with high water requirements, farmers’ lack of attention to cultivation with short-term farming periods, farmers’ low level of awareness on products with early returns, farmers’ unwelcoming attitude towards accepting and implementing modern irrigation methods, farmers’ unacceptance of cultivation patterns, farmers’ lack of awareness on the low efficiency of conventional irrigation, and their general lack of knowledge to subjects related to water and agriculture. The second effective factor that prevents optimized water consumption was identified as “the administrative factor” which entails lack of fair distribution of water in rivers and ponds’ sub streams, weak integration of agricultural lands, eroded water transfer and distribution channels, expansion and digging of deep wells during previous decades, absence or erosion of water drainage systems and lack of serious attention to dredging of irrigation canals, absence of comprehensive plans for optimized water consumption in areas of regional water supplies and Jahad-e-Keshavarzi, vastness of the geographical region for water-related activities in Gonbad City, absence/inefficiency of rules and policies in the area of water and agriculture, lack of human resources in strict supervision over the activities of farmers and weakness in presentation of a comprehensive calendar plan as an administrative sub-index.
“Economic” and “Natural” factors were identified as the third and fourth effective factors. Meanwhile, farmers believe that the most important barriers and challenges respectively include “administrative”, “economic,” “social”, and “natural” factors. Consequently, a significant difference was shown between the views of experts and farmers on barriers against optimized consumption of agricultural water with farmers expressing the “administrative” factor as the most important barrier.
Conclusion:
The overall results obtained from structural equations suggest the model’s strong fitness (GOF=0. 55). Examination and analysis of various dimensions of challenges against optimized water consumption from the experts’ perspective showed that the most important and effective barriers include social and administrative factors, respectively. Accordingly, the coefficient of determination for said factors were obtained as 0. 802 and 0. 513; economic and natural factors were identified in subsequent positions. Results obtained from structural equations were significant at 95% confidence level. It was also shown that the priority indicated by experts and farmers on the effectiveness of barriers and challenges against optimized water consumption were different; accordingly, farmers believe that the most important barriers respectively include administrative, economic, social, and natural. Meanwhile, experts placed the social factor and farmers’ exclusive issues at the first position. There is also a significant difference in spatial-locational terms regarding the challenges against optimized water consumption. Results obtained from water efficiency index showed that despite their higher cultivation levels, the common products of the town including wheat, rye, and rice have lower efficiency and profitability (10. 5%). Therefore, the current cultivation pattern of this city is not optimized, with a drastic difference in economic terms when compared to alternative scenarios. The results of this study is more consistent with those of studies by Taherabady et al. (2016).