چکیده:
ساده ترین شکل مطالعه در عرصه توسعه پایدار روستایی، از دیدگاه جغرافیایی، مطالعه نحوه توزیع فضایی آنهاست. بر این اساس، هدف از پژوهش حاضر، سنجش سطوح فضایی پایداری سکونتگاه های روستایی واقع در استان قم است. پژوهش حاضر براساس هدف کاربردی و روش پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی است. دادههای مورد نیاز به روش اسنادی بهدست آمده است. محدوده مورد مطالعه استان قم و جامعه آماری پژوهش روستاهای دارای سکنه استان قم هستند. وزندهی به شاخصهای پژوهش با استفاده از مدل F’ANP و تحلیل دادهها با استفاده از روش تصمیمگیری چندمعیاره VIKOR انجام شد. برای طبقه بندی روستاهای مورد مطالعه از جنبه سطوح پایداری از روش تحلیل خوشه ای و نرم افزار GIS و برای تحلیل عوامل موثر بر پایداری از رگرسیون خطی استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد از ۱۸۰ روستای مورد مطالعه ده روستا در طبقه پایدار، ۱۸ روستا در طبقه نسبتا پایدار، ۱۰۸ روستا در طبقه پایداری پایین، و ۴۶ روستا در طبقه ناپایدار قرار دارند. روستاهای ناپایدار در مناطق مرکزی استان استقرار یافتهاند. همچنین، نتایج تحقیق حکایت از آن دارد که روستاهای استان در مقایسه با یکدیگر از سطح پایداری پایینی برخوردارند؛ بهطوریکه الگوی فضایی آن نامتعادل است و این پایداری به طور یکسان در همه شاخصهای پایداری روستاها اتفاق نیفتاده است. این وضعیت بیانگر پویش ناقص نظام سکونتگاهی استان است. از نظر کاربرد مدلها و تکنیکهای کمی، در این پژوهش برای اولین بار از پژوهش F’ANP در تعیین سطوح پایداری روستایی استفاده شده و نتایج تحقیق کارایی این مدل را در مطالعات جغرافیایی اثبات کرده است.
INTRODUCTION
The approach of the sustainable development as a framework for the analysis of the sustainability of rural settlements has received high value and credit. Here, achieving sustainable development without proper measuring, interpreting and explaining is of no significance. One of the necessary foundation for proper planning is to have knowledge of the capabilities and position of different regions in terms of the level of development and sustainability. Having knowledge of changes in sustainable development and knowing its structure, dimensions and spatial expansion in rural areas are considered as critical parameters for appropriate decision making and planning. In this regard, the easiest form of studying in the field of rural sustainable development from the geographical viewpoint is to study the spatial distribution of significant factors. Accordingly, the present study is to analyze and measure the spatial levels of rural settlements located in Qom province. Sustainability assessment has helped define the goals of sustainable development and progress assessment in order to achieve these them and is considered as part of the process of measuring the impact of different aspects of sustainable development. The sustainability assessment is the most significant tool in changing conditions for the sustainable development. The objective of sustainability measurement is to provide a general outline of the sustainability situation at the space level, which can be extended from the range of complete sustainability to the unsustainability, and ultimately provide areas for identifying the factors that contribute to sustainability. Regarding sustainability measurement, there are no fixed and definite indicators, and, according to conditions of different countries and time periods, certain indicators have been used to measure sustainability. The modern era of evaluation and measurement of sustainability began in the late 1940s, and with its generalization, net national product (NNP) and gross national product (GNP), GDP were defined as general indicators of sustainability. Finally, in 1987 World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) recommended that countries pay attention to the issue of sustainable development on the economic, social and environmental dimensions, simultaneously.
Materials and Methods
The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of the method of research. The statistical population of the study includes inhabited villages of Qom province. The required data are obtained by documentary method using data of the census on population and housing, culture of the Qom provinces, as well as with the reference to some government agencies and organizations. For weighing the indicators of the research the F'ANP model has been utilized; by using the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) method VIKOR indicators were integrated and the final indicator of development was determined. Determining the spatial pattern of sustainable development was conducted by cluster analysis method using ARC GIS software; linear regression was utilized to measure the effective factors in the final indicator of development. Besides, EXCEL, SPSS and MATLAB software were used as analysis tools
Results and Discussions
In this research, the weighing of indicators in the study was conducted using the F'ANP model. The final weight of the indicators derived from the F'ANP model showed that the percentages of literate population, literacy of men and literacy of women were 7.9, 6.72 and 6.69, respectively. It also shows that the highest weight and dependency ratio, the population growth rate and the percentage of agricultural workers to all employees were 2.85%, 3.8% and 3.16%, respectively, and had the lowest weight among the 23 indicators in the study. After weighing, indicators were combined using VIKOR technique. Finally, according to VIKOR scores, the villages under the study were ranked in four categories in terms of sustainable development levels by the cluster analysis method using in the GIS software. in the first category, the sustainable villages, there are 120 villages, in the second category, fairly sustainable villages, there are 37 villages, in the third category, villages with low sustainability, there are 8 villages and in the fourth category, the unsustainable villages, there are 15 villages. The results of regression analysis also showed that "literacy level" had the highest effect and "income level" had the least effect on the sustainability level of villages under the study.
CONCLUSION
The results of this study showed that although the villages of Qom province compared to each other enjoy the sustainable level, this sustainability is not integrated. In other words, the sustainability of villages is not the same in all the indicators. This situation reflects the imperfect dynamics of the provincial settlement system in the province. Despite that, this province has a special political and religious status in the country. From the spatial aspect, the sustainability level of the province has followed a pattern indicative of (relative) spatial equality. This research also demonstrates the effectiveness of the F'ANP model in geographical studies.The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of the method of research. The statistical population of the study includes inhabited villages of Qom province. For weighing the indicators of the research the F'ANP model has been utilized; by using the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) method VIKOR indicators were integrated and the final indicator of development was determined. Determining the spatial pattern of sustainable development was conducted by cluster analysis method using ARC GIS software; linear regression was utilized to measure the effective factors in the final indicator of development. Besides, EXCEL, SPSS and MATLAB software were used as analysis tools. The results of this study showed that although the villages of Qom province compared to each other enjoy the sustainable level, this sustainability is not integrated. In other words, the sustainability of villages is not the same in all the indicators. This situation reflects the imperfect dynamics of the provincial settlement system in the province. Despite that, this province has a special political and religious status in the country. From the spatial aspect, the sustainability level of the province has followed a pattern indicative of (relative) spatial equality. This research also demonstrates the effectiveness of the F'ANP model in geographical studies
خلاصه ماشینی:
نتايج اين پژوهش نشان داد سطح پايداري در محدودة مورد مطالعه نامطلوب است و بيشتر سکونتگاه هاي روستايي منطقه در طبقۀ متوسط قرار دارند.
نتايج اين پژوهش نشان داد مؤلفه هايي همچون مشارکت ، سرمايۀ اجتماعي، و محروميت اجتماعي در قالب ٢٤ شاخص ، معيارهاي مناسبي براي سنجش پايداري نواحي روستايي است .
نتايج اين پژوهش نشان داد ميان جمعيت و سطح پايداري روستاها ارتباط مستقيمي وجود دارد و هرچه يک روستا جمعيت بيشتري داشته باشد پايدارتر است ، اما همۀ روستاهايي که در يک گروه جمعيتي قرار ميگيرند به يک اندازه پايدار نيستند.
بر اين اساس ، نگارندگان در پژوهش حاضر به دنبال واکاوي و سنجش سطوح فضايي پايداري سکونتگاه هاي روستايي واقع در استان قم ميباشند؛ البته ، اثبات کارايي مدل F’ANP در حيطۀ مطالعات جغرافيايي نيز مورد توجه بوده است .
در ميان روش ها و تکنيک هاي اندازه گيري شاخص توسعۀ پايدار تکنيک «فرايند تحليل شبکه » (ANP) بيشتر مورد توجه و استفاده بوده است .
روستاهاي مورد مطالعه (با توجه به نمره هاي ويکور) از نظر سطوح پايداري با استفاده از روش تحليل خوشه اي در محيط نرم افزار GIS در چهار طبقه رتبه بندي شدند (جدول ٤).
در پژوهش حاضر از مدل F’ANP براي وزن دهي به شاخص هاي تحقيق استفاده شده است .
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