چکیده:
در تحقیق حاضرتلاش شده است تا با استفاده از مدل LCM روند تحول سکونتگاههای شهر پاوه در طی سالهای 1998 تا 2013 ارزیابی و همچنین میزان توسعه این نواحی برای سال 2030 پیشبینی شود. در این راستا، بر مبنای کاربری اراضی و سکونتگاهی سال 1998 و روند تغییر آن تا سال 2013 و همچنین سایر پارامترهای مؤثر، میزان گسترش نواحی سکونتگاهی تا سال 2030 پیشبینی شده است. بعد از تهیه تصاویر و عمل پیش پردازش با استفاده از طبقهبندی نظارتشده، نقشه کاربری اراضی سالهای 1998 و 2013 تهیه شده است. سپس با استفاده از مدل LCM و بر مبنای متغیرهای مؤثر. نتایج تحقیق حاضر بیانگر این است که نواحی سکونتگاهی منطقه مورد مطالعه با رشد روزافزونی مواجه میباشد، در سال 1998 کل نواحی سکونتگاهی منطقه مورد مطالعه 1/4 کیلومترمربع بوده است، این در حالی است که این مقدار در سال 2013 به 5/6 کیلومترمربع رسیده است. مطابق نتیجه بهدستآمده، وسعت نواحی سکونتگاهی در سال 2030 به حدود 10 کیلومترمربع خواهد رسید. مطابق نقشههای تهیه شده و اطلاعات حاصله، توسعه آتی نواحی سکونتگاهی در قالب گسترش طولی و عرضی و نیز هستههای خاص و غالبا منطبق بر سطوح دامنهای و حریم رودخانهای است. بنابراین با وجود کارا بودن رویکرد موجود و بهرهگیری از آن به عنوان یک سند اولیه، ضرورت تهیه و عملیاتی شدن سند ژئومورفولوژیکی شهری پاوه مبتنی بر فرم و فرایندشناسی با هدف شناخت واقعیت مکانی و مخاطرات محیطی موجود، جهتیابی روند توسعه شهری و نیز کاهش سطح ریسک وجود دارد.
Assessment and Prediction of the process of expansion of residential areas with Geomorphological Approach and Environmental Management (Case Study: Paveh City) Introduction: Cities are always affected by various factors and expansions. As cities expand, their coming across various topographic units increase. Therefore the importance of knowing the characteristics of the natural environment, in order to identify suitable zones for the construction of buildings, is identified. Urbanization leads to widespread land use and adverse environmental impacts. In some cases, the expansion of urban spaces also results in environmental hazards and threats to human societies. Geomorphological studies are needed to identify most of the characteristics of the natural environment. Through this awareness, it is more feasible to take effective steps in choosing the most suitable place to create and expand cities and it's possible to lower the risk of natural processes and to counteract them. The present study, thus, attempts to use the LCM model with a geomorphological approach, evaluate the evolution of Paveh settlements during 1998 to 2013 and predict the future development of these areas by 2030. The purpose of this approach is to plan and organize the movement of the settlements towards the less risky areas. Methodology: To predict the expansion of residential areas with a geomorphological approach and environmental management, the following steps are taken. Initially, satellite imagery of 1998 and 2013 was produced. The next step was to pre-process the images where the data were examined for geometrical and radiometric errors. After preprocessing the images, the land use map of the area was prepared using a supervised classification method. Teaching examples are defined in 5 classes of agriculture, gardens, rangelands, residential areas, as well as unoccupied lands. By designing training samples using the maximum likelihood method, land use maps of the study area for 1998 and 2013 were prepared. The next step was to detect changes using LCM which was modeled in four stages. Initially, the changes in 1998 and 2013 were examined. Then using the MLP method, transition potential maps were prepared. Then, land use change forecasts were prepared for 2030. Finally, the predicted LCM map was compared with the existing reality map. The results indicate the acceptable accuracy of the prepared maps. Discussion: The city of Pave, located on the high Zagros zone and along the northwest - southeast, has shown the characteristics of the Zagros Mountains well. The geomorphological study of Paveh and its surroundings indicates the existence of a mountainous geomorphologic unit with active slopes as well as valley systems with active river systems as well as an active fault system at its surface. A combination of the above factors indicates that one of the most important challenges of Paveh city is limitation of topography and lack of suitable land for urban expansion. The land use map of the study area in 1998 showed that 4.2 km2 of the entire area had been residential areas. It is estimated that the settlement area of Paveh has reached 6/5 km2 in 2013. Spatio-temporal comparison of Paveh city expansion trend shows an increase of 2.5 km2 in this period and these results indicate significant spatial variability and consequently greater interference with geomorphological units. The estimated future expansion based on the LCM model for 2030 was 10 km2. The results showed that the transverse as well as longitudinal expansion of Paveh would be significant in 2030. This expansion of the settlement often corresponds to sensitive areas and this results in increased processes and increased risk levels. Conclusion: The results showed that the expansion of residential areas has been increasing rapidly, reaching from about 4.4 km2 in 1998 to about 10 km2 in 2030. According to the maps prepared and the available information, Gardens and agricultural lands reduced as residential areas expanded. Surveys showed that the existing urban area in 2013 had a transverse and longitudinal expansion compared to 1998. This process, based on the forecast for 2030, will also occur at a much broader level than 2013. The topographical position and the increasing trend of population over the period under consideration have led to the development of residential areas, moving to more risky areas and increasing the risk factor. In other words, based on the geomorphological status of the area and morphological forms, the expansion of urban areas to high risk areas occurs. This study showed that despite the efficiency of this research as a precursor, the necessity of preparing a geomorphological urban plan with form and process approach is essential for Paveh and other Iranian cities.
خلاصه ماشینی:
بنابراين در تحقيق حاضر سعي بر آن شده است تا با استفاده از مدل LCM روند تحول سکونتگاه هاي شهر پاوه در طي سال هاي ١٩٩٨ تا ٢٠١٣ ارزيابي و همچنين ميزان توسعه فيزيکي اين نواحي براي سال ٢٠٣٠ پيش بيني شود تا بتوان برنامه ريزيهاي لازم را جهت سامان دهي و کنترل حرکت اين نواحي به سمت مناطق مخاطره آفرين انجام داد.
بنابراين در تحقيق حاضر سعي بر آن شده است تا با استفاده از مدل LCM روند تحول سکونتگاه هاي شهر پاوه در طي سال هاي ۱۹۹۸ تا ۲۰۱۳ ارزيابي و همچنين ميزان توسعه آتي اين نواحي براي سال ۲۰۳۰ پيش بيني شود تا بتوان برنامه - ريزي هاي لازم را جهت سامان دهي و کنترل حرکت اين نواحي به سمت مناطق مخاطره آفرين انجام داد.
(به تصویر صفحه مراجعه شود) شکل ١: نقشه موقعيت منطقه مورد مطالعه مواد و روش ها هدف از تحقيق حاضر بررسي روند توسعه سکونتگاهي شهري پاوه و فضاي پيراشهري در طي سال هاي ۱۹۹۸ تا ۲۰۱۳ و پيش بيني اين روند تا سال ۲۰۳۰ است .
(به تصویر صفحه مراجعه شود) شکل ٤: نقشه کاربري اراضي سال ١٩٩٨ منطقه مورد مطالعه ارزيابي وضعيت کاربري اراضي با تاکيد بر نواحي سکونتگاهي در سال ٢٠١٣: با توجه به هدف پژوهش که توسعه شهري با يک ديد بين رشته اي در ارتباط با مسائل ژئومورفولوژيک است ، مقايسه زماني - مکاني روند توسعه و گسترش پهنه محيطي شهر پاوه يکي از فرايندهاي اصلي پژوهش مي باشد.
Development and application of GIS- based analysis/ synthesis modeling techniques for urban planning of Istanbul Metropolitan Area.