چکیده:
In recent years, there has been increasing consensus that the ultimate and long-term goal of monetary policies is price stability; however, the question remains as to how monetary policy should be guided to achieve this goal? The core of most monetary systems is the use of a nominal anchor. Inflation targeting is a framework for guiding monetary policy in which policy decisions are made based on a comparison of expected future inflation with the announced inflation target. In this framework, monetary authorities consider a quantitative target for future inflation. If the predicted inflation for a specific time horizon differs from the announced target, they take action to implement new monetary policies so that the inflation performance forecast aligns with the target amount. In this article, after reviewing the literature on this type of targeting system, the feasibility of its implementation in the Iranian economy is investigated. The results of the study show that the requirements and prerequisites for the successful adoption of inflation targeting do not exist in the Iranian economy; therefore, defining a transition phase to fulfill the conditions and requirements for implementing this policy is necessary.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Different countries, in order to prevent inflation and its resulting problems and to achieve the long-term goal of price stability, have so far used various monetary methods and systems such as exchange rate targeting, money supply targeting, and inflation targeting to guide and steer their monetary policy.
An examination of exchange rate targeting shows that despite its advantages (the ability to directly reduce inflation and inflationary expectations, its simplicity and clarity, and providing an automatic rule and nominal anchor that can avoid the problem of time inconsistency), this method has weaknesses.
Studies show that the inflation targeting policy framework has important characteristics, including: a strong commitment to price stability, setting quantitative targets for inflation (medium and long term), accountability of the central bank in terms of achieving goals, transparency of policy and effective communication with the public, applying a forward-looking approach considering the lags of monetary policy and flexibility in responding to short-term economic shocks.
In such a framework, a predicted decrease in real production growth causes an increase in the central bank's inflation target and ultimately leads to stabilization, as it automatically leads to easing monetary policy.
Undoubtedly, the surest way to avoid these issues, in cases where inflation targeting is the main goal of monetary policy, is to avoid strong commitments to the desired level or time path of the exchange rate by the central bank (Dibel 3P} and Hon Lim 4P}, 1998 and Mason 5P} et al.
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