چکیده:
Natural disasters as unanticipated events are negative shocks to aggregate supply. The response of an economy to these shocks depends on various factors including implementation the engineering codes in building، existence of sufficient stocks of farm products and cash assets، public training and management method of natural crises. In this paper، it is tried to study the importance and impact of occurred natural disasters on aggregate level of economic activities. To do this، the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) has been used over the 1959-2004 period. The estimation results of short- and long-run models indicate the negative impact of natural disasters on Iranian economy and a U-shaped relationship between natural disaster damages and non-oil GDP. Also the estimation of Error Correction Model (ECM) implies that only 17 percent of disequilibria are adjusted in each period.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The results of short-term and long-term model estimations show the negative impact of these disasters on the national economy and the U-shaped relationship between the amount of damage caused by natural disasters and non-oil GDP.
The most important macroeconomic effects of a natural disaster, depending on its type and scale, are usually on gross investment, balance of payments, public finance, inflation, and unemployment, but the indicator that best shows changes in the general level of economic activity is Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and by calculating this index at real prices, the effect of inflation is neutralized.
Based on the above theoretical model, we specify the following dependent form to explain the effect of natural disasters on the overall level of economic activity: Refer to the image on the page where C: intercept, NGDP, non-oil GDP at 1376 constant prices, RDMG, natural disaster losses at 1376 constant prices adjusted by the depreciation index, INV, gross fixed capital formation at 1376 constant prices, , squared natural disaster losses (to determine the shape of changes in NGDP against natural disaster losses) and DUM: a dummy (fictitious) variable that is equal to one for years 1369 onwards and zero for the rest of the years (because in 1369 the Rudbar earthquake with coverage of Gilan, Ardabil and Zanjan provinces caused severe financial and human losses).
On the other hand, the results of dynamic estimations The short-term and long-term models indicate a positive impact of gross fixed capital formation and a negative impact of natural disaster damages on non-oil GDP, while the U-shaped relationship between natural disaster damages and the general level of economic activity is accepted.
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