چکیده:
The high speed of changes and the increase in uncertainty and complexity in the environmental conditions of the new millennium have led to avoiding planning and decision-making based on the assumption of linear change in various parameters, and instead turning more towards futures studies at various levels and fields. However, studies related to the future have always faced epistemological challenges. In this research, first, a critique of Wendell Bell's theory in the epistemology of futures studies, as one of the most famous theorists in this field, is addressed, and then strategic foresight rationality, as a pragmatic approach in futures studies, is analyzed; meaning, how rational are the propositions derived from future studies using the strategic foresight approach. The findings of the research, while enumerating the most important criticisms leveled against Bell's theory, show that 'problem-solving', 'accuracy in prediction', 'balance between topics', 'simplicity', 'comprehensiveness', and 'consistency', alongside 'axiology', are criteria that introduce strategic foresight as a justified and reasonable approach that can significantly contribute to the long-term success of future studies. Accordingly, suggestions for the development and application of strategic foresight have been provided to stakeholders in universities, industries, and government authorities.
خلاصه ماشینی:
A Critique of the Epistemology of Future Studies, with an Emphasis on the Rationality of Strategic Foresight 1 Moslem Shirvani Naghani, Mohammad Rahim Ayoudi 2 Abstract The high speed of changes and the increase in uncertainty and complexity in the environmental conditions of the new millennium have led to a departure from planning and decision-making based on the assumption of linear change in various parameters, and an increasing trend towards future studies at various levels and fields.
The findings of the research, while enumerating the most important criticisms directed at Bell's theory, show that "problem solving", "accuracy in prediction", "balance between subjects", "simplicity", "comprehensiveness", and "consistency", alongside "value orientation", are criteria that introduce strategic foresight as a valid and reasonable approach that can significantly contribute to the long-term success of future studies.
participatory Foresight identification and critical futurology in future studies, justify their research results based on values and, with a transactive approach, emphasize constructing a desirable future rather than merely predicting it; however, strategic foresight is philosophically more compatible with classical sciences and uses methods and techniques aimed at future prediction that are based on empiricism.
Over time, it has been shown that strategic foresight, especially in the field of science and technology, has been more successful than other futures studies approaches and has solved problems better (Spring, 2006, Calof, Tanguay).
They considered further progress in futures studies possible under the shadow of recognizing its philosophical foundations (165, 2005, Bell), but research shows that the main problem of futures studies has been its failure in practice (Olson & Rejeski, 2001; Kapoor, 2001; Glenn, 2001; Stevenson, 2001; 2006), otherwise, even the epistemological foundations of physics, which are based on inductivism and empiricism, face numerous weaknesses.
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