چکیده:
Economic literature has examined financial development from various dimensions; in this regard, what changes in labor productivity during business cycles are one of the important topics in macroeconomics that has received little attention in studies of Iran's economy. Therefore, in this article, using quarterly statistics for the period 1384(1)-1393(4), the behavior of labor productivity fluctuations in Iran's business cycles has been investigated in the form of an ARDL model. To estimate the relationships, fluctuations, and trend component, the Hodrick-Prescott statistical filter was used for decomposition, and the results obtained from the Hodrick-Prescott filter were analyzed with a Markov Switching model. The findings of this article show, first, that labor productivity fluctuations are aligned with GDP fluctuations, in the sense that labor productivity increases during boom periods and decreases during recession periods. This subject supports the cyclical nature of labor productivity fluctuation behavior in the Iranian economy. Second, in the quarters at the end of a boom period, the share of labor productivity fluctuations in explaining Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fluctuations decreases, which is consistent with theory and theoretical discussions.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Therefore, in this article, using quarterly statistics for the period 2005-2014 (1384-1393), the behavior of labor productivity fluctuations in Iran's business cycles has been investigated in the form of an ARDL model.
In economic literature, one of the important variables that plays an effective role in the occurrence of business cycles and has a significant share in explaining the fluctuations of a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is labor productivity.
In this regard, Gordon 1 (2011) provides evidence regarding European and American firms which confirms that as the end of the boom period approaches, the share of productivity in Gross Domestic Product fluctuations in these countries decreases, because when the boom period begins, firms do not know exactly how long this boom will last; therefore, at the beginning of the boom period, they do not proceed to hire labor.
Therefore, the aim of this article is to analyze and examine the behavior of labor productivity during business cycles during the period (1384-1393) [2005-2014] within an ARDL model for the Iranian economy, while also investigating the concept of "End of Expansion" 2 (EOE) and its impact on labor productivity fluctuations.
4- Statistics, Information, and Model Estimation Method In this study, annual statistics related to the active population, labor force participation rate, and real gross domestic product for the period 1384 to 1393 have been extracted from the time series database of the Statistical Center of Iran and the Central Bank indicators.
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