چکیده:
The valuation of startups in venture capital has always been an important topic in negotiations between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. The results of research conducted regarding the valuation of startups indicate that the valuation of these entrepreneurial projects, especially in their early stages of formation, is a complex and difficult matter due to high uncertainty regarding their future and existing challenges. By utilizing real options analysis, a new approach for determining the value of startups was presented in the current research, taking into account the existing uncertainties in the first round of financing as well as the flexibility available to venture capitalists in making their investment decisions. Due to the lack of an analytical solution for the developed approach, the Monte Carlo Least Squares (Longstaff-Schwartz) numerical simulation method was used to solve it, and based on the results obtained from the simulation, the ownership percentage of the entrepreneur and the venture capitalist was determined. Furthermore, by comparing the results obtained from the proposed approach with the results obtained from the Net Present Value method, as emphasized in the research literature, it was concluded that traditional methods do not have the necessary credibility for valuing such startups. In the final section, suggestions were provided for developing the model under competitive conditions or expanding it for other investment stages.
خلاصه ماشینی:
By utilizing real options analysis, the present research provides a new approach for determining the value of startups, taking into account the existing uncertainties in the first round of financing and the flexibility available to venture capitalists in making their investment decisions.
As reviewed in the research background, various dimensions of venture capital in startups have been investigated; however, to date, no research has been presented regarding the valuation of startups that, while explaining the desired stage of startup development and considering agency problems, takes into account several sources of uncertainty along with the options of venture capitalists; therefore, the present research, given that entrepreneurs' decisions are generally made under conditions of uncertainty [22] and these entrepreneurs need practical skills and models [23] to achieve maximum investment efficiency under resource scarcity conditions [24], seeks to provide a new approach for valuing startups as follows: • The startup in question is in the startup stage and is seeking financing in the first round.
Startup development Earning profit from Completion of the startup Startup formation (End of first round) the startup (Start of commercialization) (Pre-commercialization stage) Figure 1- Timeline of the investment model in the startup The startup business plan launch cost is a random variable with an expected value that is assumed to be determined by the entrepreneur; in order to eliminate the intentional part of agency problems, it is assumed that the venture capitalist provides the required capital at a maximum rate of in each period.
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