چکیده:
Exchange rate، by influencing areas like: balance of payments، competitiveness، general level of prices، informal economic activities and etc. is considered as one of the most important macroeconomic variables. In this context، assessing the direct and indirect impacts of exchange rate on economic variables and its proper management at equilibrium level، has changed it to one of the challenging points for policy makers. Because a deviation from equilibrium level of exchange rate (known as misalignment) could lead to great macroeconomic fluctuations. This article is to assess this phenomenon (exchange rate misalignment) during 2001-11 in which Iranian authorities implemented the second exchange rate unification policy followed by a hardly managed floating exchange rate approach. For this reason، a basic monetary exchange rate determination model during 1989-2001 was estimated and then it was simulated through real data to estimate equilibrium exchange rate in an ex-post approach. The results imply a great exchange rate misalignment which has been overvalued more than 95% in some periods. These results emphasize moving towards an equilibrium exchange rate. The results also suggest that the price level has had much more impact on exchange rate than national Income and volume of money.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Apart from the above discussion, the results of the study indicate that the most important determining factor of nominal exchange rate fluctuations in the Iranian economy is the price level, followed by national income and money supply, respectively.
Review of studies conducted in the international arena regarding exchange rate misalignment Authors Year of Publication Scope / Method / Results Iimi3 2006 In this study, variables such as the real interest rate differential, the ratio of non-tradable to tradable goods prices, net capital flow, and the risk index in Botswana have been used to describe the actual behavior of the equilibrium exchange rate.
Taghavi and Khodam 1390 In this research, it is attempted to determine and specify the criterion variable (dependent) in various exchange models, which include exchange theories such as "Flexible Price Monetary Theory," "Purchasing Power Parity Theory," "Mundell-Fleming Q Theory," and "Asset Market Theory," using econometric methods, and after determining the regression analysis coefficients in historical observations, the prediction of the Pound to Dollar exchange rate is performed for the out-of-sample period as a case study.
As has been done in similar studies (Yavari and Mezini, 1382; Pesaran, 2000; and Bahmani-Oskooee and Kara, 2000), the final model used in this article can be rewritten as follows: Log (E ) =LogMI - ogM U ) -LogYI ogY U ) +Log π -ogπ) (5) which we briefly show in the form of Equation (6): t t t t (6) S a bm cy dp The variables p, y, m, s represent the logarithm of the nominal exchange rate (Rial/Dollar) and the difference in logarithms of: money supply, national income, and the consumer price index in the two countries, respectively.
(
, 
, 
)
