چکیده:
In this paper we test the relationship between industrial export and industrial sector growth over the period 1338 to 1386 by using VECM. We carried out Johansen test for finding cointegration relations. This test shows two cointegration Equations the first relation represents the effect of industrial export on industrial sector growth and second indicates the effect of industrial export on employment of industrial sector. Results of coefficient estimations show that the growth of industrial sector in addition affected by factors such as capital and labor، also importantly affected by industrial exports which act through increasing productivity in sectors producing for export and through externalities of export for non-export sectors.
خلاصه ماشینی:
By estimating a long-term relationship and calculating the coefficients, it was found that the growth of the industrial sector, in addition to being affected by the growth of factors such as capital and labor, has also been affected by the growth of industrial exports through two ways: increasing productivity in sectors that produce for export, and also through the spillover effects of exports on non-export sectors.
Safavi (1376) in his research investigated the effects of implementing import substitution policies, export promotion, changes in the structure of domestic demand, and the expansion of domestic demand on the growth of Iran's industrial sector during the period 1353-1376, and for this purpose, used the Chenery adjusted model (1379).
Additionally, as a result of implementing adjustment policies that led to price increases in the years 1376 and 1377, which caused a significant transfer of private sector financial resources from production investment toward profitable commercial transactions and intermediation, as well as the change in the country's exchange rate system, foreign exchange constraints, and disruptions in the entry of raw materials, intermediate goods, and machinery required by the industrial sector, the value added of the industrial sector decreased in the two aforementioned years; therefore, the dummy variable D7 is entered into the model, and for the sake of ease and brevity of the above relationships, equation (7) can be rewritten as follows: (7) gy = α.
0. Conclusion and Recommendations Based on the results obtained from the present research, industrial exports have had positive and significant effects on the growth of the value added of the industrial sector.
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