The effect of oil price shocks, exchange rate fluctuations, and the uncertainty derived from them on the economic growth of selected oil-producing countries مقاله

خلاصه ماشینی:

This article examines the effect of oil price shocks and real exchange rate fluctuations on the GDP growth of exporting countries. Based on the estimation results, a long-term relationship exists between oil prices, exchange rates, and output in these countries. In this article, the effect of oil price shocks and exchange rate fluctuations on output growth in oil-exporting countries including Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela is investigated; to this end, the VAR method with the cointegration technique has been used for the period 1990-2021. Furthermore, the results show that positive oil price shocks cause an increase in the real effective exchange rate, a decrease in the price of imported goods, and an increase in the price of exported goods. 3. Model Presentation To examine the effect of oil shocks and exchange rate fluctuations on the economic growth of oil-producing countries, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR)2 method with the cointegration3 technique has been used. The long-term relationship for Algeria can be written as follows: (Refer to the page image) According to this relationship, the effect of an increase in oil prices on output growth is significant and positive. The long-term relationship results for Saudi Arabia are also reported in equation (8), according to which an increase in oil prices causes growth in Saudi Arabia's output, and an increase in the real effective exchange rate will cause a decrease in output. Short-term Analysis The analyses in this section seek to examine the short-term effects of oil price shocks and real effective exchange rate fluctuations on the real output growth of Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.