چکیده:
In this article, an optimal consumption pattern for oil and gas revenues is introduced, and based on the results obtained from the model, the amount of savings and consumption of the country's oil and gas revenues is predicted in the time horizon 2052-2150. At the end of the article, based on the research findings, a pattern for establishing an oil and gas revenue fund is proposed. The desired pattern is based on constrained maximization of the consumer's intertemporal utility function. According to this pattern, only the consumption of the interest derived from oil wealth is permitted in the long term, and at the end of the period of exploiting oil and gas wealth, the per capita wealth of individuals, taking population growth into account, will be equal to the per capita wealth of people from oil and gas natural resources at the beginning of the period. To demonstrate the necessity of forming an oil and gas revenue fund, the negative consequences of an oil economy, such as rent-seeking, Dutch disease, and the harmful effects of oil shocks on the economy, are first mentioned. Then, Iran's failed experiences in solving the country's economic problems through the indiscriminate injection of oil revenues during two time periods—the fifth development plan before the revolution (1946-1992) and the period (1990-2011)—are briefly reviewed. The article shows that although the creation of a foreign exchange reserve account in the third plan and the extension of its mission in the fourth plan are considered important steps toward countering the harmful effects of oil shocks and smoothing oil and gas revenues over time, its objectives have been different from an oil and gas revenue fund. The article emphasizes that governments and legislative assemblies always strive to deliver a larger portion of oil revenues to consumption through the government budget in order to meet the endless needs and demands of the people. For this reason, despite predicting a ceiling for government withdrawals from oil revenues in the third and fourth plans, the government and parliament have not remained faithful to the behavioral rules they agreed upon. Given the above findings, it is suggested at the end that the Leadership and the Expediency Discernment Council, which possess a long-term vision for preserving the interests of the system, support the formation of an oil and gas revenue fund and provide the necessary moral support for it. May governments and legislative assemblies comply with the laws that will be enacted in this regard.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Today, a significant portion of the country's foreign exchange revenues and the sources of the government's general budget are provided through the production and export of oil, and the share of oil and gas in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is noteworthy.
Experience has turned this point into common knowledge: fluctuations in revenues derived from the production and export of oil and gas have significant impacts on the country's trade balance, exchange rate, government budget, and monetary variables.
The impact of oil and gas revenue fluctuations and the exhaustibility of the country's primary energy reserves has turned the adoption of appropriate scientific policies—aimed at the optimal use of national wealth reserves for the benefit of long-term growth of the national economy while considering intergenerational justice—into an urgent necessity.
Table(4): Oil share in the government's general budget resources with clarification of energy subsidies (Refer to the page image) Explanations: Years 1338 and 1348 from the economic indicators of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The failure to achieve the goals of the fourth plan regarding economic growth, the government's inability to control inflation, the excessive increase in the country's import balance, the expansion of the government, the relative recession of the industrial sector, and the unprecedented high cost of urban housing during this period leave no doubt that the reckless injection of oil revenues into the economy has had harmful effects.
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