چکیده:
Trade, and especially exports, are important and noteworthy topics in economic circles, particularly in the second half of the twentieth century, and so far, many opposing and supporting views have been presented regarding the growth and expansion of exports in the process of national development. The aim of the present research is to determine the position of exports in the Iranian economy and to answer these questions: Is there a causal relationship between exports and Iran's economic growth during the years 1959 to 1993? And if such a relationship exists, has export led to the growth of the country's economic sectors? And to what extent was each sector influenced by export growth? The technique used to explain the above relationships is the Granger causality test and the use of the Gerschenkron growth model. The results obtained from the investigations show that there is a one-way relationship from export growth toward economic growth (GDP), and among other factors affecting economic growth, the coefficient related to exports is the largest coefficient. Also, in examining the status of the three sectors—agriculture, industry, and services—the following results were obtained: Regarding the agricultural sector, export growth and non-oil exports had no significant effect on the growth of this sector, and only the growth of exports within this sector itself led to the growth of the agricultural sector. In contrast, the other two sectors, namely industry and services, were under the influence of total export growth, non-oil exports, and sectoral export growth, and all three mentioned factors had a positive and significant effect on the growth of these sectors. In this regard, the service sector has benefited more from the spillover effects of exports than the other two sectors. Given the results obtained and the significant share of export growth in the growth of the country's economy, the necessity of moving towards extroverted economic development policies is confirmed. Since Iran possesses potential capabilities in terms of energy resources and diversity in agricultural product production, the agricultural sector has greater foreign exchange earning potential in the short term. Therefore, considering that the export of raw and primary products will have less effect on the growth of added value in the long term compared to manufactured goods, attention to creating processing and industrial industries in the long term will lead to continuous growth of added value and Gross Domestic Product.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Table 3- Value added, number of employees, investment in the industry and mining sector and the sector's share of total employees, investment and gross domestic product in the country at constant 1361 prices (Refer to the page image) Source: Iran National Accounts 56-1338 and years thereafter.
Table 4- Value added, number of employees, investment in the service sector and the sector's share of total employees, investment and gross domestic product in the country at constant 1361 prices (Refer to the page image) Source: Iran's National Accounts 1338-56 and years after that.
Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Economic Report and Balance Sheet of various years Planning and Budget Organization, Economic and Coordination Deputy, Bureau of Population, Employment and Productivity, Measurement and Analysis of Total Factor Productivity Growth in a Four-Sector Pattern in the Iranian Economy, pp.
Also, during the years under study, the agricultural sector has had the least fluctuation in added value growth, and factors such as war, the occurrence of the revolution, and Table 5-Definition of variables used during the investigation (Refer to the page image) In order to examine the service sector, a causality test was first conducted.
The result of the above test was that in the first and second lags, the effect of total exports on the growth of value-added in the service sector is confirmed, because the F-statistic was obtained as 2.
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