چکیده:
This article 1r1ues that the September 11 events hasestablished a new kind of threat perceptlon11mon11t the US policy maken. To this end, the author 11 of the view that the events has decreased US threshold of threat perceptions and has therefore created a new "Institutional paranoia" as the US penlsted dur1n1· the Cold War. As a result the new stratepc environment 11 likely to Isolate the US In International relations, particularly hi the crl1l1- rldden Middle East. Con1lderln1 Iran's nuclear activities and the US disapproval, the author holds that US strateay to deal with this l11ue should be directed toward a preventive diplomacy rather than a preemptive defense one 11 any attempt to use force In order to deter Iran from acqulrln& nuclear tecbnoloay may lead to the revival of Penlan nationalism, the emeraence of anti-American sentiments and the 1tren1thenln1 of hardllnen' position
خلاصه ماشینی:
With respect to Iran's nuclear activities and the outcome of the ongoing dialogue and negotiations with the IAEA, and the relevant US strategy to contain the perceived threat from this country,the following observations and recommendations are forwarded for the purpose of stimulating debate: - Iran's fluid political dynamic has raised high threat perceptions in the minds of US decision makers; this is further aggravated by recent disclosure oflran' s secret nuclear activities and breach oflegal obligation during past decader'" - Iran's acquisition of nuclear capability has added further negative elements to the already hostile relations between the two countries and has put Iran's credibility into serious doubt; - Iran is in a vulnerable defensive situation after the September 12 IAEA Resolution and will probably give more concessions to the international community on various matters, namely the signature of the Additional Protocol to the NPT, <161 but this may not alleviate the US threat perceptions; - Even iflran succeeds in obtaining or manufacturing a handful of nuclear weapons, it lacks the overall capability to build a viable deterrent force vis-a-vis the United States or other nuclear states; - Whatever the real intention of Iran's recent attempts at manufacturing delivery systems and long-range ballistic missiles, this action seems to be a gesture of national prestige in the region, rather than a serious threat to any country since it lacks other important elements of national power for a sustained military operation; - Any selective targeting or military operations against Iran's nuclear plants or vital oil terminals and facilities may only consolidate national integration and risks the revival of Persian nationalism, even among those who are not in line with the incumbent regime.