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فهرست مقالات

A Study on the Establishment of ECFA between Mainland of China and Taiwan

نویسنده:

علمی-پژوهشی/ISC (10 صفحه - از 37 تا 46)

کلیدواژه ها :

Competitiveness ،CGE model ،FTA ،ECFA

کلید واژه های ماشینی : Establishment ECFA Mainland China Taiwan ، Mainland China Taiwan Economic Cooperation ، China ، Taiwan ، This FTA China Korea FTA ، ASEAN ، FTA ، The Mainland China Taiwan ، ECFA ، Korea

As the chances of a successful conclusion to the Doha Round of trade liberalization under the WTO become increasingly problematic, so the pace of negotiating local free trade agreements (FTAs) is increasing. According to the WTO report, countries in the Asia-Pacific region are "consolidating their drive towards regionalism at an accelerated pace". After the trade agreements between China and the Association of South-East Asian Nations-so-called ASEAN+1 took effect at the beginning of 2010, both Mainland of China and Taiwan speeded the negotiation on signing the Economic Cooperation Framework agreement (ECFA). Taiwan's exports to China face tariffs ranging from 5% to 15% and its government fears that, unless they are lowered, the island will be left at a competitive disadvantage in the giant Chinese market. This disadvantage would greatly worsen if a planned ASEAN+3 were one day signed, embracing South Korea and Japan.On June 29 at a ceremony in Chongqing, both sides signed ECFA which went into effect later from September 12, 2010. This agreement will remove trade and investment barriers between two economies. So far ECFA has become a hot topic catching the eyes of researchers and government officials. It has been reported that this agreement may result in a GDP growth of 1.65-1.72% at Taiwan side. Besides GDP growth, which specific sectors will benefit from this ECFA on both sides? How will it affect its neighbor economies? Based on GTAP model (Global Trade Analysis Program) which is derived from the CGE model, this paper will update the data after 2004 which is set in GTAPAgg7 and simulate the economic changes on both sides, such as GDP growth, welfare changes, all the sectors production changes. The economic influences on some East Asian economies will also be discussed.

خلاصه ماشینی:

"Based on GTAP model (Global Trade Analysis Program) which is derived from the CGE model, this paper will update the data after 2004 which is set in GTAPAgg7 and simulate the economic changes on both sides, such as GDP growth, welfare changes, all the sectors production changes. Based on GTAP model (Global Trade Analysis Program) which is derived from the CGE model, we will update the baseline data after 2004 which is set in GTAPAgg7 and simulate the economic changes on both sides, such as GDP growth, welfare changes, all the sectors production changes. This paper aggregates 113 countries (regions) into 17 regions: Mainland of China, Taiwan, Hongkong, ASEAN (10 countries), Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, India, the United States, EU (27 countries), Chile, Pakistan, MENA (Middle East and North Africa Countries), LatinAmer (Latin American countries), Sub-Saharan Africa and other countries in the world; also aggregates 57 sectors into 21 industries such as fruits and vegetables, animal products, dairy products, Cereal, other agricultural products, manufactory products and service etc. According to relevant government policies and achievements of world agricultural trade liberalization negotiation, we update following data: China abolished agricultural tax from 2006, so we change China’s domestic support from negative value to zero in the database; developed countries canceled export subsidy of cotton from year 2006 (the developed countries discussed in this paper are EU, America, Japan, Australia and New Zealand)."


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