چکیده:
Risk management is one of the most important phases of project management and isthe most recently used by many researchers. In this paper, a fuzzy based method wasproposed which identifies different kinds of risks through the project life cycle.Then, the project risk magnitude can be obtained in regards to five factors, namely“severity”, “occurrence”, and “not detection” which form fuzzy FMEA and also twoother factors namely project phase weights and risks weights. These two factors inaddition to risk priority number (RPN) factors can lead to the application of betterrisk management. Based on the project risk magnitude, the appropriate risk responseshould be selected. The proposed model covers three parts of risk managementprocess: 1. Risk identification, 2. Quantitative risk analysis and 3. Risk responseplanning. Finally, this model was applied by a numerical example, and project riskmagnitude was calculated for an assumed company, to verify the proposed method.
خلاصه ماشینی:
In this paper, a fuzzy based method was proposed which identifies different kinds of risks through the project life cycle.
Keywords Analytical Hierarchy Process, Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), FuzzyRules, Project Risk Management Corresponding Author, Email: F.
The objective of this research was to use fuzzy Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) concept in project risk assessment, to decrease errors of risk factors in risk management decision making.
The proposed method uses AHP and FMEA approaches to present an accurate framework which considers project life cycle weights and risk weights in the risk assessment process.
This approach is concerned with conducting risk management planning, risk identification, qualitative risk analysis, quantitative risk analysis, risk response planning, as well as risk monitoring and control on a project (Elgembri & Altamimi, 2011).
Considering uncertainty and fuzziness, as developed in the structure of the proposed method, results in a more accurate calculation of risk magnitude and subsequently results in choosing a more appropriate response.
Carr and Tah (2001) in their paper, investigated a fuzzy approach to construct project risk assessment and analysis.
The following examples are about the application of AHP in project risk management process, Hastak and Shaked (2000) provided a structured approach for evaluating risk indicators involved in an international construction operation.
Project risk management process according to PMBOK The steps of our method are as follows: Step 1: Determination of the project life cycle phases.
Final RPN for each risk Initiation Planning Execution Monitoring & control Closure αj 1 Product engineering 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 Requirements (1.