Abstract:
شدت و فراوانی رخدادهای توفان گردوخاک در استان سیستان و بلوچستان در فصل تابستان (ژوئن، ژوئیه و اوت) با تغییر در گردشهای بزرگمقیاس جوی تغییر میکند. بهمنظور بررسی گردشهای بزرگمقیاس جوی با استفاده از دادههای باز تحلیلشده NCEP/NCAR شاخص موسمی هند و شاخص اقلیمی کاسپین-هندوکش برای بازه زمانی 30 ساله (2016-1987) در فصل تابستان محاسبه شده است. نتایج نشان داد که شدت شاخص موسمی هند در طی این دوره کاهش پیدا کرده و بر شدت شاخص کاسپین-هندوکش افزوده شده که سبب تقویت جریانهای شمالی در مرزهای شرقی ایران و غرب افغانستان شدهاند؛ از طرفی شاخص توفان گردوخاک که با استفاده از دادههای دیدبانی ایستگاههای هواشناسی این استان محاسبه شد، روند معنیداری در این بازه زمانی نشان نداد. همچنین با بررسی مقادیر بیشینه یا کمینه شاخصهای یادشده در سالهای بحرانی مشاهده شد که مقادیر بیشینه/کمینه شاخص توفان گردوخاک با بیشینه /کمینه شاخص کاسپین-هندوکش و کمینه/ بیشینه شاخص موسمی هند منطبق است.
This paper investigates the climatological changes of summer dust storm events over 30 years (1987 -2016) in Sistan and Baluchestan province in the southeast of Iran and their relation to large scale atmospheric circulation. The Dust Storm Index (DSI) was calculated for the five selected meteorological stations in Sistan and Baluchestan province. Moreover, the Indian Monsoon Index, as a large-scale atmospheric circulation in the summer and the Caspian-Hindu Kush index were calculated using the re-analyzed data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and Atmospheric Research (NCEP / NCAR) with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 degrees. The results showed that during the mentioned period, the Indian monsoon experienced a significant decrease, while the Caspian-Hindu Kush index showed a significant upward trend indicating an increase of the sea level pressure difference between the Caspian Sea and the Hindu Kush Mountains, resulting in strengthening the north-south pressure gradient and wind speeds on the eastern borders of Iran and western Afghanistan. However, the dust storm index over the past15 years has declined significantly. In the next step, the correlation coefficients of the Indian Monsoon Index and the Caspian-Hindu Kush index were calculated by the Pearson method. Regarding the increase in the Caspian-Hindu Kush index, temperature has increased, while relative humidity has decreased in the most stations of the province. Surveys showed that in the summer of 1988 when the lowest amount of the Caspian-Hindu Kush index was calculated, the frequency of dust events at the Zabol station was lower than the long-term average, but the Indian monsoon occurred at intensity greater than the 30-year average., While in 2001, the highest incidence of dust storms was recorded in Sistan and Baluchistan province, especially in Zabol station. This year, both the Indian Monsoon Index and the Caspian-Hindu Kush index were higher than the long-term average, leading to dust genesis by strengthening northern currents and reducing relative humidity in this year.