Abstract:
The intensification of credit risk and increasing the volume of non-performing loans of the banking system in recent years creates a potential crisis in the Islamic Republic of Iran’s riba-free banking system. before the occurrence and realization of social and economic crises in the country it is necessary to provide appropriate solutions of course, in accordance with the native requirements. To achieve this goal, in this research in order to a better understanding the the issue, by a relatively comprehensive review of internal and external resources factors affecting the intensification of credit risk were identified. Then, by using Delphi method according to expert opinions similar factors combined and 15 major factor (8macro or exogenous and7micro or endogenous factors) as the most important factors affecting on the issue were determined.Then based on the experts opinions (the CEOs of the country's banks) by using fuzzy DEMATEL method, internal communication and the importance of these factors determined. Accordingly increase in risk taking acts in banks managemet, features of the usage, intensifying recession, banks structural problems, and weakness in supervision and following bank’s claims process have the greatest impact and the importance on increase in non-performing loans credit risk in the iran’s banking system. Also banks structural problems, rising inflation and exchange rate, lack of independence in banks for dealing with loans, weakness in the process of evaluation loan application, intensifying the political and economical risks, and legal problems for prosecution non-performing loans are as affecting factors, and other factors are affected.
Machine summary:
From the perspective of the experts used in the research, who are the managing directors of the country's banks, the factors of increasing risk-taking behavior of bank management, problems arising from the use of facilities, economic recession, structural problems of banks, and weakness in monitoring and following up on claims have the most impact and importance in intensifying credit risk and increasing non-performing loans in the country's banking system.
The importance of this research lies in the fact that although numerous studies have been conducted in the field of credit risk and non-performing loans, a holistic view at the level of the entire banking network, and specifically through a complete survey of the set of factors affecting the subject, has not been carried out.
1. Research Background In this research, over a period of more than 2 years of study within the country's banking system, to better explain the dimensions of the subject, a relatively comprehensive review of more than 200 articles and books was conducted to survey the set of detailed and general causes and factors affecting the intensification of banks' credit risk, which increases the volume of non-performing loans as they intensify, and efforts were made to identify the most important factors affecting the subject.
First Group of Experts (Delphi Method) The first group of experts are individuals whose opinions are used solely for grouping and merging similar factors and extracting the most important factors affecting the intensification of credit risk in the banking system of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the necessary conditions for them include possessing at least one of the following: Publishing at least one book, a master's or doctoral thesis, or writing at least two scientific-research articles in the field of Islamic banking and risk management.
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