Abstract:
Nowadays, the crisis of water resource scarcity and the unemployment crisis are considered two fundamental problems of the Iranian economy. By definition, virtual water export is a specific sector in the input-output table, defined as the increase in the output of the water sector resulting from a one-unit increase in the exports of that specific sector. Therefore, identifying the desirable export pattern of Iran based on the employment potential of economic sectors and virtual water export is the issue of this research. In fact, the goal of this research is to extract an export method and pattern based on solving the problems of unemployment and water resource scarcity. The method of achieving this pattern is through the input-output approach. To this end, first, the 2011 input-output table of the Statistical Center of Iran was aggregated into 18 main sectors. Then, using the RAS method, this table was updated for the year 2015. After calculating the Leontief inverse matrix, the amount of employment increase per unit change in final demand and also the amount of virtual water export were extracted. From the combination of these two indicators, a combined export pattern index was obtained. Then, according to the mentioned objectives, the results were specified and described. The research results show that in order to create employment and further reduce virtual water exports, the country's export pattern should move towards exporting the service sector through attracting tourists, continuing international consultancies, providing international transportation services, accepting patients seeking treatment from other countries, etc.
Machine summary:
Designing Iran's Export Pattern Based on Two Criteria Virtual Water Export and Employment Potential of Economic Sectors Using an Input- Output Approach * Mehdi Sadeghi Shahdani ** Mohammad Jamour Abstract Nowadays, the water scarcity crisis and the unemployment crisis are considered two fundamental problems of the Iranian economy.
Keywords: Virtual water, input-output table, export pattern, employment potential JEL Classification: C67, J60, R15, Q25 * Faculty member of the Faculty of Islamic Studies and Economics, Imam Sadiq University (AS) shahdani@yahoo.
In the next section, the theoretical foundations related to this research are explained in detail, which itself includes the input-output table, employment multipliers, table updating, virtual water, export pattern, and statistical bases.
Domestic background Keshavarzhad and Cheraghi (2007) addressed the issue of ranking the production potentials and employment generation of the Iranian economy in 24 sectors and, using the input-output analysis method, reached the conclusion that among the sectors of the Iranian economy, the sectors of industry, food production, other services, residential and infrastructure buildings, commercial services, other industrial products, road transport services, building stone materials, and metallic minerals are among the sectors that can be considered key in providing job opportunities.
These 18 main sectors include the main sectors of agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing; industry; mining; electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, water supply, waste management, sewerage and treatment activities; construction; wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles, transport and storage; service activities related to accommodation and food provision, information and communications; financial and insurance activities; real estate activities; professional, scientific and technical activities; administrative and support service activities, public administration, defense and social security; education; activities related to human health and social work, and other public, social, personal and household services.
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