Abstract:
4 was used. The results obtained from this study indicate severe fluctuations in precipitation across all stations, accompanied by intensities and weaknesses. In terms of classifying the intensity of wet and dry spring seasons, a normal precipitation state is often observed in the studied stations, with occasional dry seasons and also wet periods, where dry seasons possess more sequence and continuity than wet seasons, and this position is not without influence on the emergence of the drought phenomenon. In this article, data related to the seasonal precipitation climatic element over a 41-year statistical period (1960 to 2000) for stations in East Azerbaijan province has been used for statistical analysis of precipitation data and modeling, and for calculating and predicting wet and dry spring seasons. The main method used in this research is the time series analysis method and for
Machine summary:
Dr. Ali Mohammad Khorshid Doost 1 Yousef Ghavidel Rahimi 2 Study of precipitation fluctuations and determination and prediction of wet and dry spring seasons in East Azerbaijan stations Abstract: In this article, data related to the seasonal precipitation climatic element in a 14-year statistical period (2000 to 2014) for stations in East Azerbaijan province has been used for statistical analysis of precipitation data and for modeling, calculating, and predicting wet and dry spring seasons.
The main method used in this research is the time series analysis method and for -------------- (1)-Faculty member of the Physical Geography Department at University of Tabriz and Islamic Azad University of Ahar, Director General of Environmental Protection of Ardabil Province (2)-Master of Physical Geography (with a concentration in Climatology in Environmental Planning) explaining precipitation fluctuations, two models of oscillation and moving average were used, and for predicting future wet and dry seasons, the "decomposition" time series prediction model 3 was used.
(Refer to the page image) Based on the precipitation prediction models and Table 5, it can be seen that in the period between the years 2005 to 2010, normal and wet conditions will prevail at most stations in most cases, and the wettest spring will occur in the year 2008 at Sarab station, while the most severe spring drought will occur in the year 2009 at Mianeh station.
Ghavidel Rahimi (3831), "Study of precipitation fluctuations and prediction of determining wet and dry winter seasons in East Azerbaijan," Quarterly Journal of Geographical Research, 27(1): 52-63.
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