چکیده:
In this study, we investigate the long run and causality relationship
between tourism receipts and economic growth in 17 MENA selected
countries during 1995-2007. We incorporate exchange rate as an
intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between tourism receipts and
economic growth. Using panel cointegration technique, the results show
that in the MENA countries, there are the bidirectional causality between
tourism receipts and economic growth in long run and short run. Also we
find that the unidirectional causality from exchange rate to economic
growth and tourism receipts. Our findings imply that MENA economics
could increase their short-run and long run economic growth by
strategically strengthening their tourism industries. In final, we provide
some policy implication for this industry in these set of countries.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Therefore in this study we inter exchange rate1 as intermediate variables that could effect on both economic growth and tourism revenues and will use the panel cointegration technique and FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS) estimators to investigate the long-run and causal relationships between tourism 1- Since the exchange rate measures the effective prices of goods and services in tourism rival country, many studies have adopted the real exchange rate in the discussion of international tourism in order to deal with potential over-looked variable problems and to account for external competitiveness (see Dritsakis, 2004).
Table1: International Tourism 2010 {مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} Source: world developed indicator (WDI, 2010), world tourism organization (WTO, 2010) and computing of researchers 1- The countries are includes: Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malta, morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Tunisia, united Arab, Yemen 134/ Economic Growth, Tourism Receipts and Exchange Rate in MENA International tourism receipts‐MENA 1.
140/ Economic Growth, Tourism Receipts and Exchange Rate in MENA Table 2: Panel Unit Root Tests in the First Difference of Variables {مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} * Indicates Significant at the 1% level 4-2- Panel Cointegration Test: The next step is to test for the existence of a long run relationship among LGDP , LTOUR and LEXC.
142/ Economic Growth, Tourism Receipts and Exchange Rate in MENA Table 4: Fully Modified OLS Estimates of the Long-Run Relationship {مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} * indicates significant at the 1% level 4-4- Panel Causality Test: Once the variables are cointegrated, in this step we investigate panel Granger causality by estimating vector error correction (VEC).