چکیده:
در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی و ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت ﺷﺪﯾﺪ در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﺗﺠﺎری ﮐﻪ ذیﻧﻔﻌﺎن راﺑﺎ ﻋﺪم اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن ﻋﻤﺪه و اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻣﺘﻌﺪدی ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﻧﻤﻮده اﺳﺖ، وﺟـﻮد اﻟﮕﻮﻫـﺎﯾﯽ ﺑـﺮایﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺎﻟﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎی ﻣﻬﻢ از ﻗﺒﯿﻞ ﺳـﻮدآوری،ﺟﺮﯾﺎﻧﻬﺎی ﻧﻘﺪی و رﺷﺪ در ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، از اﻫﻤﯿـﺖ ﺑـﺴﺰاﯾﯽ ﺑﺮﺧـﻮردار اﺳـﺖ. در اﯾـﻦراﺳﺘﺎ از اواﺧﺮ ﻗﺮن اﺧﯿﺮ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﮔﺴﺘﺮده در زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﻣـﺎﻟﯽ و ﺣـﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، ﯾـﮏ روﯾﮑـﺮدﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻫـﺎی ﻣـﺎﻟﯽ را ﻓـﺮاﻫﻢ ﻧﻤـﻮده اﺳـﺖ، روﯾﮑـﺮدﻣﺬﮐﻮر از دو ﺑﻌﺪ ﺑﻨﯿﺎدی ﻣﻮرد رﺳﯿﺪﮔﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﮐﻪ از ﯾﮏ ﺑﻌـﺪ ﺳـﻮدآوری و از ﺑﻌـﺪ دﯾﮕﺮ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ را ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ و ﺑﻪ واﺳﻄﻪ اﯾﻦ روﯾﮑﺮدﻫﺎ و ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎدهاز 11 ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﯾﯽ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ را در ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺑﺤﺮان ﻫـﺎی ﻣـﺎﻟﯽ آﺗـﯽ ﻣـﻮردﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ و ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ. در ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺗﻼش ﻣﯽﺷﻮد وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻣـﺎﻟﯽو اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺷﺮﮐﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎی ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺳﻮدآوری، ﺟﺮﯾﺎﻧﻬﺎی ﻧﻘـﺪی و رﺷـﺪﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺷﻮد، از اﯾﻨﺮو ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و آزﻣـﻮن ﻋﻤﻠﮑـﺮد ﻣـﺎﻟﯽ و روﯾﮑـﺮدارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ رﯾﺴﮏ اﺳﺖ و ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﺷﺮﮐﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ دو ﮔﺮوه ﻣﻮﻓﻖ و ﻧﺎﻣﻮﻓﻖ، ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﺮای دو ﮔﺮوه ﺷﺮﮐﺘﻬﺎی ورﺷﮑﺴﺘﻪ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻣـﺎده 141 ﻗـﺎﻧﻮن ﺗﺠـﺎرت و ﺷـﺮﮐﺘﻬﺎیﺧﺬف ﺷﺪه از ﺑﻮرس ﻃﺒﻖ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﻫﯿﺎت ﭘﺬﯾﺮش ﺑـﻮرس ﺑـﺎ اﺳـﺘﻔﺎده از ﺗﺤﻠﯿـﻞ آﻣـﺎریﻻﺟﯿﺖ 1ﻣﻮرد آزﻣﻮن ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ، ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎی ﻣـﺎﻟﯽ در ﻫـﺮ دوﮔﺮوه ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﮔﯿﺮی، ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﯾﯽ ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﺷﺮﮐﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ دو ﮔﺮوه ﻣﻮﻓﻖ و ﻧـﺎﻣﻮﻓﻖ را دارﻧـﺪ اﻣـﺎدﻗﺖ ﻣﺪل ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ ﺷﺪه ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﺷﺮﮐﺘﻬﺎی ورﺷﮑـﺴﺘﻪ ﻃﺒـﻖ ﻣـﺎده 141 ﻗـﺎﻧﻮن ﺗﺠـﺎرت ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﮐﺘﻬﺎی ﺣﺬف ﺷﺪه از ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ اﺳﺖ.
Changeable economic conditions and intense fluctuations in business environment are provided stakeholders to make decision under material uncertainty. In this case, using some models to predict economic and financial performance by identifying effective variables such as profitability, cash flows and growth is very important. From the late recent century, an ample of studies in Accounting and Finance have provided a descriptive approach based on financial ratio analysis. This approach is being reviewed from two fundamental aspects: profitability and financial status. The capability of financial ratios in predicting future financial crisis is being analyzed and compared through this approach and by using the 11 financial ratios. The aim of this paper is to predict firms' financial status using the ratios of profitability, cash flows and growth. So the purpose of this paper is to develop and test the financial performance and risk evaluation approach and to classify the firms into successful and unsuccessful. In this research the Logit Analysis is being used to review/test two groups of firms: bankrupt firms according to Commerce Law article 141, and omitted firms from Stock Exchange according to the decision of Bourse Admission Board. The results indicate that the financial ratios in both samples have the ability to classify them into successful and unsuccessful groups, but the codified model for bankrupt firms according to Commerce Law article 141 in comparison with the omitted firms from Stock Exchange is more accurate.
خلاصه ماشینی:
در ﺟﺪول ﺷﻤﺎره 1 ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﯾﯽ و دﻗﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎی 4 xو8 xﺑﺎﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﯾـﮏ و دو ﺳﺎل ﻗﺒﻞ از ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﺑﺮای ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨـﯽ ﺗـﺪاوم ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿـﺖ ﺷـﺮﮐﺘﻬﺎی ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘـﻪ ﺷـﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ: ﺟﺪول 1- ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ دﻗﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ﺑﺮای ﺷﺮﮐﺘﻬﺎی ورﺷﮑﺴﺘﻪ- روش اﯾﻨﺘﺮ ﮔﺮوه ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﮔﺮوه دو ﺳﺎل ﻗﺒﻞ از ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﯾﮑﺴﺎل ﻗﺒﻞ از ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﭘﯿﺶ دﻗﺖ دﻗﺖ ﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﻧﺎﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﻧﺎﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﻓﺮض ﮐﻠﯽ ﮐﻠﯽ ﺗﻌﺪاد درﺻﺪ ﺗﻌﺪاد درﺻﺪ ﺗﻌﺪاد درﺻﺪ ﺗﻌﺪاد درﺻﺪ 7/68 3/31 4 7/68 62 7/69 3/ 3 1 7/69 92 ﻧﺎﻣﻮﻓﻖ 08 08 42 02 6 7/69 7/69 92 3/ 3 1 ﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﺟﻤﻊ 3/38 - - - - 7/69 - - - - ﮐﻞ ﺟﺪول ﺷﻤﺎره 1 ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ، در ﻣﻮرد ﯾﮏ ﺳﺎل ﻗﺒﻞ از ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿـﺖ دو ﻧـﻮع ﺧﻄـﺎ اﺗﻔﺎق اﻓﺘﺎده اﺳﺖ، ﺗﻌﺪاد ﯾﮏ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻧـﺎﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﺗﻮﺳـﻂ ﻧـﺴﺒﺖﻫـﺎی 4 xو8 xﺑﻌﻨـﻮان ﻣﻮﻓـﻖ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺸﺎندﻫﻨﺪه ﺧﻄﺎی ﻧﻮع اول و ﻣﻌﺎدل 3/3 درﺻﺪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ و ﺗﻌﺪاد ﯾﮏ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻧﺴﺒﺖﻫﺎی 4 xو8 xﺑﻌﻨﻮان ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻧﺎﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨـﯽ ﺷـﺪه اﺳـﺖ ﮐـﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه ﺧﻄﺎی ﻧﻮع دوم و ﻣﻌﺎدل 3/3 درﺻﺪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮐﻠﯽ ﺑﺪﺳـﺖ آﻣـﺪه ﺑـﺮای ﯾﮑﺴﺎل ﻗﺒﻞ از ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ دارای دﻗﺖ ﮐﻠـﯽ 7/69 درﺻـﺪ و ﺧﻄـﺎی ﮐﻠـﯽ 3/3 درﺻـﺪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ.