چکیده:
ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﻲ اﻳﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﻪﻛﺎری و ﻣﻴﺰان ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺳﻮد ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫـﺎی ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘـﻪﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮای ﻛﻤﻲ ﻛﺮدن ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈـﻪﻛـﺎری ﻣﺸـﺮوط از دو ﻣﻌﻴـﺎر ﺿـﺮﻳﺐﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺟﻤﻊ اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪی اﺧﺘﻴﺎری)ﻏﻴﺮﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺗﻲ( ﺑﻪ ﺟﻤـﻊ داراﻳـﻲﻫـﺎ و ﻧﺴـﺒﺖ ﺳـﻮد ﺧـﺎﻟﺺ ﻗﺒـﻞ از اﻗـﻼمﻏﻴﺮﻣﺘﺮﻗﺒﻪ ﺑﻪ ارزش ﺑﺎزار ﺣﻘﻮق ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎن ﺳﻬﺎم و ﺑﺮای ﻛﻤﻲ ﻛﺮدن ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈـﻪﻛـﺎری ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺸـﺮوط از دو ﻣﻌﻴـﺎرﻧﺮخ ارزش دﻓﺘﺮی ﺑﻪ ارزش ﺑﺎزار ﺧﺎﻟﺺ داراﻳﻲﻫﺎ و ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺟﻤﻊ اﻗـﻼم ﺗﻌﻬـﺪی ﺑـﻪ ﻣﻴـﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺟﻤـﻊداراﻳﻲﻫﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪﻫﺎی ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ در ﺳﻄﺢ ﻫﺮ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ و در ﺳﻄﺢ ﻛﻞ ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮررﺳـﻲﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﻲدﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺟﻤﻊ اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪی اﺧﺘﻴـﺎری)ﻏﻴﺮﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺎﺗﻲ( وﺳﻮد ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺷﺪه در ﺳﻄﺢ ﻛﻞ ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﺎداری وﺟـﻮد ﻧـﺪارد. راﺑﻄـﻪ ﻣﻌﻨـﻲدار ﺑـﻴﻦ ﻧﺴـﺒﺖ ﺳـﻮدﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻗﺒﻞ از اﻗﻼم ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺘﺮﻗﺒﻪ ﺑﻪ ارزش ﺑﺎزار ﺣﻘﻮق ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎن ﺳﻬﺎم و ﺳﻮد ﭘـﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨـﻲ ﺷـﺪه ﺷـﺮﻛﺖﻫـﺎ درﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ ﻣﺎﺷﻴﻦآﻻت-ﺗﺠﻬﻴﺰات، اﻟﻜﺘﺮﻳﻜﻲ و ﻛﺎﺷﻲ-ﺳﺮاﻣﻴﻚ وﺟﻮد دارد وﻟﻲ در ﺳﻄﺢ ﻛﻞ ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ ﺑﻪﺻـﻮرتﺗﺠﻤﻌﻲ اﻳﻦ راﺑﻄﻪ ﺻﺎدق ﻧﻴﺴﺖ. ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ آن، ﻋﺪم وﺟﻮد راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﻲدار ﺑﻴﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ارزش دﻓﺘﺮی ﺑﻪ ارزشﺑﺎزار ﺧﺎﻟﺺ داراﻳﻲﻫﺎ روی ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺳﻮد ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ در ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ اﻟﻜﺘﺮﻳﻜﻲ و ﻏﺬاﻳﻲ-آﺷﺎﻣﻴﺪﻧﻲ ﺑﺮﻗـﺮار اﺳـﺖﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﻳﻦ در ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ دﻳﮕﺮ و در ﺳﻄﺢ ﻛﻞ ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ اﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪ ﺗﺄﻳﻴﺪ ﺷﺪه اﺳـﺖ. در ﻧﻬﺎﻳـﺖ ﻧﺘـﺎﻳﺞ ﺑﻴـﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﻋـﺪم وﺟﻮد راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﻲدار ﺑﻴﻦ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪی ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ داراﻳﻲﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ روی ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺳﻮد ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
The main purpose of this paper is review of the relationship between conservatism and amount of earning anticipation of companies accepted in Tehran stock exchange. For quantifying the conditional conservatism, we use two measures including negative coefficient of total voluntary (non-operational) accrual items to total assets and the proportion of net income before unexpected items to market value of stockholders equity. Likewise, for quantifying the unconditional conservatism, we use two measures namely the rate of book value to market value of net assets and negative coefficient of total accrual items total assets average. Research hypothesis studied on each industries level and total industry level. The findings imply that there was no significant relationship between including negative coefficient of total voluntary (non-operational) accrual items and anticipated earning in total industry level. Also, there was a significant relationship between the proportion of net income before unexpected items to market value of stockholders equity and anticipated earning in plant and equipment, electric and ceramic tile industries; but there was not a significant relationship between them in total industry level. In addition, there was an insignificant relationship between the proportion of book value to market value of net assets and anticipated earning in electric and food-beverage industries and this hypothesis corroborated in other industries and total industry level. Eventually, the results represent that the negative coefficient of total accrual items to total assets average had an insignificant relationship on anticipated earning.
خلاصه ماشینی:
ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری ﻣﺎﻟﻲ و ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺮﺳﻲ، ﺳﺎل ﭼﻬﺎرم، ﺷﻤﺎره ﭼﻬﺎردﻫﻢ، ﺗﺎﺑﺴﺘﺎن 1931 ﺟﺪول 1- ﮔﺮوهﺑﻨﺪی ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ و ﻓﺮاواﻧﻲ آنﻫﺎ در ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ آﻣﺎری ﺗﻌﺪاد ردﻳﻒ ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ زﻳﺮﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﮔﺮوه ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ 7 ﻣﺎﺷﻴﻦآﻻت و ﺗﺠﻬﻴﺰات ﻣﺎﺷﻴﻦآﻻت و ﺗﺠﻬﻴﺰات 1 52 ﺧﻮدرو و ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻗﻄﻌﺎت ﺧﻮدرو و ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻗﻄﻌﺎت 2 راﻳﺎﻧﻪ و ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎی واﺑﺴﺘﻪ، ﺳﺎﺧﺖ رادﻳﻮ وﺗﻠﻮﻳﺰﻳﻮن، 8 اﻟﻜﺘﺮﻳﻜﻲ 3 ﻣﺎﺷﻴﻦآﻻت و دﺳﺘﮕﺎهﻫﺎی ﺑﺮﻗﻲ، ﺧﺪﻣﺎت ﻓﻨﻲ و ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ 9 ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﻏﺬاﻳﻲ و آﺷﺎﻣﻴﺪﻧﻲ، ﻗﻨﺪ و ﺷﻜﺮ ﻏﺬاﻳﻲ و آﺷﺎﻣﻴﺪﻧﻲ 4 11 ﺳﻴﻤﺎن، آﻫﻚ، ﮔﭻ ﺳﻴﻤﺎﻧﻲ 5 81 ﻣﻮاد و ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت داروﻳﻲ داروﻳﻲ 6 ﻓﻠﺰات اﺳﺎﺳﻲ، ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﻓﻠﺰی، اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﻛﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎی 11 ﻓﻠﺰات 7 ﻓﻠﺰی ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﺷﻴﻤﻴﺎﻳﻲ، ﻓﺮآوردهﻫﺎی ﻧﻔﺘﻲ، ﻻﺳﺘﻴﻚ و ﺷﻴﻤﻴﺎﻳﻲ، ﻧﻔﺘﻲ، ﻻﺳﺘﻴﻚ و 31 8 ﭘﻼﺳﺘﻴﻚ ﭘﻼﺳﺘﻴﻚ ﻣﻨﺴﻮﺟﺎت، ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت 3 ﻣﻨﺴﻮﺟﺎت، ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﭼﻮﺑﻲ، ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﻛﺎﻏﺬی 9 ﭼﻮﺑﻲ و ﻛﺎﻏﺬی ﻛﺎﺷﻲ و ﺳﺮاﻣﻴﻚ و ﺳﺎﻳﺮ 61 ﻛﺎﺷﻲ و ﺳﺮاﻣﻴﻚ، ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﻛﺎﻧﻲ ﻏﻴﺮﻓﻠﺰی 01 ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﻛﺎﻧﻲ ﻏﻴﺮﻓﻠﺰی 121 ﺟﻤﻊ *ﻣﻨﺒﻊ: ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎی ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮ 7- روش ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ دادهﻫﺎی اوﻟﻴﻪ ﭘﺲ از اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ذﻛﺮ ﺷﺪه وارد ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار اﻛﺴﻞ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺑﺮﺧﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت، ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎی ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻴﺎز ﺑﺮای آزﻣﻮن ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪﻫﺎی ﭘـﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑـﻪدﺳـﺖ آﻳﺪ.
18 ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟـﻪ ﺑـﻪ آﻣـﺎره Fدر ﺟـﺪول ﺷـﻤﺎره 5، در ﺻـﻨﺎﻳﻊ ﻣﺎﺷـﻴﻦ آﻻت - ﺗﺠﻬﻴـﺰات، اﻟﻜﺘﺮﻳﻜﻲ، ﺳﻴﻤﺎﻧﻲ، ﻓﻠﺰات، ﺷﻴﻤﻴﺎﻳﻲ- ﻧﻔﺘﻲ و ﻛﺎﺷﻲ- ﺳﺮاﻣﻴﻚ ﻣﺪل رﮔﺮﺳﻴﻮن در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻣﻌﻨﻲدار اﺳﺖ؛ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ ﻳﻜﻲ از ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎی ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ، ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺑـﺎ اﻫﻤﻴﺘـﻲ در ﻣﻌﺎدﻟـﻪ رﮔﺮﺳﻴﻮن ﺗﻠﻘﻲ ﻣﻲﺷﻮد و ﻣﻲﺗﻮان ﮔﻔﺖ ﻛﻪ "ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺳﻮد ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻗﺒﻞ از اﻗﻼم ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺘﺮﻗﺒـﻪ ﺑﻪ ارزش ﺑﺎزار ﺣﻘﻮق ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎن ﺳﻬﺎم" روی "ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺳﻮد ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ"، اﺛﺮﮔـﺬار اﺳـﺖ.