چکیده:
In this paper we have analyzed the economic feasibilities of producing
liquefied natural gas (LNG) using “South-Pars” gas field of Iran based
on the most recently built facilities around the world. Iran has the world’s
second largest reserves of natural gas and can satisfy a significant portion
of the anticipated demand of LNG in the next years. The results show that
this project is commercially viable based upon the fiscal assumptions
evaluated. In order to investigate the most important factors affecting the
project, we have used the sensitivity analysis. Based on the results, the
price of LNG, fixed investment cost and feed gas price have substantial
effects on the project and its IRR
خلاصه ماشینی:
"In the disintegrated projects, by considering a determined price for each unit of natural gas, only the investment and operation costs and the incomes of LNG installations are calculated.
Before articulating the benefits and costs of the LNG project we should point out that the "South Pars" field is a shared gas field, so in addition to NPV, IRR and other economical factors one must also consider the opportunity cost of not exploiting the share of Iran.
Table 1: Base Case Scenario Assumptions of Economic Evaluation of LNG Project in Iran Factor Unit Capital Expenditures $1000/ton Operating Costs 3% Capex Feed gas price $2/MMBtu Depreciation 4% Debt 50% Interest rate of debt 6% Inflation rate 2% Crude oil price $100/b NGL price $105/bbl LPG price $102/bbl By-products volume 10% Feed gas Required feed gas during operating life 375 Bcm Tax rate 25% Plant Capacity 10000000 Tons a year Total Investment 10 billion $ Plant life period 25 years(350 day per year) Construction period 4 years On stream factor 95% Investment costs are 800 to 1200 dollars for production capacity of each ton per years; 50% is provided by the shareholders and 50% by the loans.
Table 2: Different Scenarios of LNG Project Capital expenditures Feed gas price LNG price NPV IRR ($/T) ($/MMBtu) ($/b) billion $ (%) 800 1 8 14.
If the sales price of LNG in the global market decreases to $8 per each MMBTU, then the LNG production is still economical for Iran because IRR of the project in the most pessimistic case is 18."