چکیده:
he consequences of illegal import as part of underground economy indicate that why it is important to study smuggling. In this paper, fuzzy logic approach is applied to compute import smuggling in Iran from 1978 to 2010 through three explanatory variables including import tariffs, exchange gap and trade openness. According to the results, relative volume of import smuggling to official import during the years of war and revolution, and the years of first, second, third and fourth development plan was approximately estimated 18.2, 17.6, 29, 32.2 and 30.8 percent, respectively. While during the entire period it has been 24 percent, on average. Finally, the results indicate an increasing trend for import smuggling as it has increased from 19.3 percent in 1978 to 27.6 percent of official import in 2010.ince 1980s, credit policy has been promoted as an important mechanism in job creation, especially for women. However, some researchers have showed that although credit programs have significant potential for contributing to women’s wellbeing, yet, many women borrowers have limited control over loans and/or resulted income. In such cases credit policy may not change women status. Women’s cooperatives are one of the institutional set up for mitigating female unemployment and promoting women’s position in the society and household. However, in most cases, cooperatives that established by the help of state subsidies may not realize the expected goals. Our field research about women’s cooperatives in Mazandaran province (Iran) confirms that there is no automatic benefit of access to finance for women; as many registered women’s cooperatives have not been able to create long lasting economic activity, despite of receiving loans.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"Bagheri Garmaroudi (1998) has estimated the size of the underground economy of Iran in ingredients including illegal imports and exports during the period 1971-95, using the monetary method (regression models), in which average of import tax burden was used to estimate import smuggling and subtraction of the export dollar rate from the black market dollar rate used to estimate the export smuggling volume.
Variables including black market premium for foreign exchange, penalty for smuggling, tariff burden, production per capita, trade openness and education are the explanatory variables in the model, and real governmental revenue, import price index and consumption of petroleum products are the indicators.
Taxes on foreign trade, black market premium for foreign exchange, price difference between official and unofficial import and various tariffs rates, are some economic factors limiting or expanding smuggling and depends on the function of government economic policies in each item.
In this study, the ratio of the total trade volume (Imports + non-oil exports) to GDP will be used as an index of trade openness and another input variable in fuzzy system.
Figure 2: Comparison of Ordinal Index Values of the Smuggling 6- Conclusions In this study, the volume of smuggled imports for the years 1978 to 2010 is estimated, using three variables, the official to unofficial foreign exchange ratio, the taxes on imports to official import ratio and trade openness index."