چکیده:
In recent decades, theorists proposed the role of domestic components such as interior active groups, policies and macroeconomic indicators on determination of protection policies. In the context of recent studies, this study has investigated the effect of business cycle fluctuations on import protection for selected developing countries in 1995-2011 by using dynamic panel data method. Furthermore, for sensitivity analysis, we have estimated the effect of business cycle fluctuations on protection cycle fluctuations. The results indicate that the effect of business cycle fluctuations on import protection is negative and significant. This effect has been confirmed for protection cycle fluctuations too. Based on the results, the cyclical feature of import protection is confirmed for the selected countries. On the one side, we suggest that the Governments advocate of the protection should pay more attention to the role of the endogenous factors of import protection especially the business cycles in order to increasing the success of the protection policies. On the other side, the suggestion is that the pro economic liberalization governments may liberalize more the economy in boom periods to decrease the adjustment costs.In recent decades, theorists proposed the role of domestic components such as interior active groups, policies and macroeconomic indicators on determination of protection policies. In the context of recent studies, this study has investigated the effect of business cycle fluctuations on import protection for selected developing countries in 1995-2011 by using dynamic panel data method. Furthermore, for sensitivity analysis, we have estimated the effect of business cycle fluctuations on protection cycle fluctuations. The results indicate that the effect of business cycle fluctuations on import protection is negative and significant. This effect has been confirmed for protection cycle fluctuations too. Based on the results, the cyclical feature of import protection is confirmed for the selected countries. On the one side, we suggest that the Governments advocate of the protection should pay more attention to the role of the endogenous factors of import protection especially the business cycles in order to increasing the success of the protection policies. On the other side, the suggestion is that the pro economic liberalization governments may liberalize more the economy in boom periods to decrease the adjustment costs.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"It should be noted, generally protection policies selection of small countries is based on protection impact on income distribution among local residents (domestic political economy) that according to this theory, tariffs are more in recessions because the pressure is further increased import competing firms.
According to above, the unemployment rate and import penetration are economic factors that have direct effects on tariff protection trends, other variables have been indicated the effect of political economic elements and internal pressure groups on trade strategy formation in countries, that can reflex indirect effecting ways on protection policies.
Table 1 shows the results of estimating the impact of business cycles fluctuations on import protection in selected developing countries by GMM method over the period 1995-2011.
According to the results of Table 1, the impact of business cycle fluctuation variable on protection level is estimated negative and significant that is consistent with the model proposed by McKeown (1984).
Table 1: the results of estimating business cycle fluctuations on import protection in selected developing countries in the period 1995-2011 Depended variable Independent variables Tariff rate Tariff rate The lag of depended variable cporoebffaebciileitnyt o.
Table 2 presents the results of models estimation of the impact of business cycles fluctuations on import protection fluctuations in developing countries over the period 1995-2011 by GMM method.
Table 2: the results of estimating business cycle fluctuations on import protection fluctuations in selected developing countries in the period 1995-2011 Depended variable Tariff rate Tariff rate fluctuations (HP fluctuations Independent variable method) (ALS method) The lag of depended variable coeffecient -0."