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فهرست مقالات

on the relationship between energy consumption and real gdp in iran: an application of vec model


ISC (8 صفحه - از 141 تا 148)

کلیدواژه ها :

Economic growth ،Energy consumption ،Granger causality ،VEC model

کلید واژه های ماشینی : GDP، The Causal Relationship Energy GNP، The Relationship Energy GNP، Energy، The Causal Relationship Energy Income، Iran، The VEC Granger، Granger، Co، The Relationship Energy Consumption

This paper examines the causal relationship between energy use and real GDP for the period 1967-2002 in Iran. The results of Phillips- Perron test indicate that the real GDP and the four categories of energy , i.e. coal, oil, gas, and hydroelectric energy are integrated of order one. Besides, the Johansen – Juseliusmaximum likelihood co- integration tests imply the existence of Granger causality. The VEC models that have been estimated to test the direction of Granger causality support a unidirectional causality from GDP to energy use in short run.

خلاصه ماشینی:

"Considering the distinction of energy consumption, the above steps are taken for four VEC tests: real GDP and total energy consumption real GDP and oil energy consumption real GDP and gas energy consumption real GDP and hydroelectric energy consumption The energy consumptions and real GDP time series data (1346-1381) were obtained from Energy Balance Sheet and Iran’s Statistical Yearbook published by Energy Ministry and Planning & Budget Organization respectively. Following Hondroyiannis, Lolos and Papapetrou (2002) and Soytas and Sari (2002) the variables are defined in logs: LGDPR: the log of real GDP LTEC: the log of total energy consumption LTOC: the log of total oil energy consumption LTGC: the log of total gas energy consumption LTEL: the log of total hydroelectric energy consumption All of the econometric computations carry out using Eviews software. The results of VEC model estimation have been shown in Table 3 for the causality relationship between real GDP (economic growth) and each energy consumption separately. Considering the lagged explanatory variables T-statistics, it can be seen that in the short-run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from real GDP to energy consumption except for gas energy consumption. As a case study for Iran, in this paper the causal relationship between real GDP and various energy consumption has been investigated using VEC model. The obtained results showed the real GDP and four categories of energy consumption series, including total, oil, gas and hydroelectric, appear to non-stationary in levels but stationary in first difference. Energy Consumption, Real Income and Temporal Causality: Results from A Multi-Country Study Based On Co-integration and Error Correction Modeling Techniques."

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