چکیده:
The present study has made an attempt to discuss the effects of exchange rate volatility and price
expectation on maize imports in Iran from 1980 to 2013. In doing so, using the EGARCH technique for time series econometrics, price volatility variables for both exchange rate and final price have been calculated, and the time series for these variables have been extracted. Additionally, in regard to the expected import price, the related time series has been extracted using Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP).
The empirical results indicate that exchange rate volatility and price volatility have had no significant
effects on maize import, which is due to the fact that maize is a basic commodity and is imported by the official currency, therefore domestic price volatilities and the exchange rate do not have significant effects on maize imports. However, by freezing the exchange rate and not allocating official currency, the possibility of the exchange rate volatility affecting maize imports exists and this issue could affect the whole country’s food security.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Therefore, studying the effects of exchange rate volatilities on Iran’s maize import and the impact of price expectations, which are crucial and significant matters, are our main objectives in this study.
(2008) studied the relationship between real exchange rate volatility and export volume in the short and long run in eight South American countries and concluded significant negative effects.
Few empirical studies show a positive relationship between exchange rate volatilities and international trade flows (McKenzie and Brooks, 1997; Poon and Stapleton, 2005), while a number of studies found no significant effect of exchange rate volatilities on trade flows (Kenen, 1983; Bailey et al, 1986; Thursby, 1987; IMF, 2004).
However, such a negative relationship is not robust and it concludes that if exchange rate volatility has a negative effect on 46 International Economic Studies, Vol. 46, No. 1, Autumn & Winter 2015-2016 trade, this effect would appear to be fairly small and is not robust.
S. Dollar), not the exporter- importer currency, matters for developing country exporters (Kandilov, 2008) The effects of exchange rate volatility on fresh tomato imports into the United States from Mexico were studied by Jaramillo-Villanueva and Sarker (2009).
48 International Economic Studies, Vol. 46, No. 1, Autumn & Winter 2015-2016 If the importers are risk neutral, exchange rate volatility or commodity price will not affect the = + ̂ + ̂ (̂ ) + ̂ −1 import demands.
Conclusion and Policy Implication In this study, for maize import policy based on exchange rate volatility and price expectations with a structural break approach, the appropriate model for discussing the issue was presented.