چکیده:
منابع آبی مشترک میتوانند یک عامل هم برای مشارکت و همکاری و هم تنش و درگیری بین کشورهای ساحلی باشند. آب در کنار نفت، در حیات امنیتی و سیاسی منطقه غرب آسیا نقش و اهمیت ژئوپلیتیکی بسزایی داشته و دارد به گونهای که مناسبات سیاسی و امنیتی بین کشورهای این منطقه را تحتتاثیر جدی خود قرار داده است. حوضه دجله و فرات بعنوان یکی از پرتنشترین حوضههای آبریز فرامرزی دنیا و بزرگترین حوضه آبریز فرامرزی در منطقه غرب آسیا، از درهمتنیدگیهای متعدد تاریخی، سیاسی، امنیتی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و ژئوپلیتیکی با آب برخوردار است. بیاعتمادی سیاسی باقیمانده از گذشته و رقابت منطقهای بین کشورهای ساحلی رودخانههای دجله و فرات تحت ساختار جنگ سرد، مناقشات آبی را از مسائل فنی به مسائل سیاسی و موردی برای تقابل به جای همکاری در منطقه تبدیل کرده است. هدف از این مقاله، بررسی وضعیت هیدروپلیتیک حوضه آبریز فرامرزی دجله و فرات و بررسی اقدامات کشورهای ساحلی برای تسلط بر منابع مشترک این کشور با تمرکز بر پروژه آناتولی جنوب شرقی (گاپ) ترکیه است. نتایج مطالعات نشان میدهد که ظرفیت سدها و سازههای احداث شده کشورهای ساحلی بر روی رودخانه فرات بیش از سه برابر آورد کل سالیانه این حوضه است. این در حالیست که ظرفیت این سازهها بر روی رودخانه دجله حدود پنج برابر است. نتایج بیانگر درهمتنیدگی جدی مسائل آب و محیطزیست با مسائل سیاسی و امنیتی در این حوضه است. علاوهبر این، اثرات جدی تغییرات اقلیمی بر افزایش دما، کاهش بارش، همچنین کاهش میزان رواناب سطحی و کاهش پتانسیل تولید انرژی برقابی؛ در کنار عدم اعتماد و رقابت جدی کشورهای ساحلی برای تسلط هر چه بیشتر بر منابع آبی حوضه، نگرانیهای بسیار جدی در خصوص آینده این حوضه ایجاد کرده است که در صورت ادامه رویکردهای گذشته، میتواند آب و اثرات زیستمحیطی حاصل از ایجاد سازههای آبی را در این حوضه از فاز فنی- سیاسی وارد فاز نظامی- امنیتی نماید.
Shared water resources can be a source of both cooperation and conflict among riparian countries (Mianabadi, Sheikhmohammady, Mostert, & Van de Giesen, 2014). Water, along with oil, plays a major geopolitical role in the security and political life of the West Asia region, and has had a serious impact on the political and security relations among the countries of the region. Among 286 transboundary river basins, the Euphrates and Tigris River Basins (ETRB), as one of the most challenging transboundary river basin in the world and the largest transboundary basin area in the West Asia, have diverse historical, political, security, economic, social, and geopolitical complexity with water. Building national security is a dominant phenomenon in the West Asia that has been under a dynamic interaction with water issues due to multiple controversies and relations of riparian countries of international rivers in this region. Accordingly, management and utilization of transboundary river absins, especially in this region, is more sensitive and complex than national and local basins (Mianabadi, Mostert, & Van de Giesen, 2015).
After the fall of the Ottoman Empire in the beginning of 20th century, three new countries including Turkey, Syria, and Iraq formed which were riparian states neighboring the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. With the collapse of this Empire, hydro-political activities of riparian countries for even more but limited domination over shared water resources in this basin have resulted in different political and security challenges in this critical area. Large scaled irrigation and hydropower projects that started in 1960s by riparian states of the ETRB, regarded as a threat to national security of the other neighboring countries and these countries made efforts to stop such attempts through various measures. For example, the tension between Iraq and Syria in 1975 over construction and operation of Tabqa dam in Syria and reduction in flow of the Euphrates River went on to the brink of a full-fledged war, as such that Iraq threatened Syria by bombing Tabqa dam. This conflict was the reason for these two to deploy their forces in boundaries of the other state, but ultimately, it ended through mediation of Saudi Arabia and USSR (Korkutan, 2001; Sadeghi, 1997). Some research reveal that at least 40% of the Euphrates flow to downstrearm riparians has been lost due to over-exploitation since 1972 and the overall flow of the river is expected to reduce further and faster in the coming decade, exacerbated by climate change (Shamout & Lahn, 2015).
Methodology
The purpose of this study is to investigate hydro-political status of ETRB and to examine measures of riparian states to dominate the shared water resources of the region, especially the Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP) by Turkey. Therefore, at first, we will introduce climate, geographical, and hydrological status of the region through an analytical-descriptive approach and by studying books and articles and collecting various data from valid scientific websites as well as analyzing different documents and information provided by international organizations including UNDP and UNEP. Then we will scrutinize Euphrates and Tigris river basin water utilization projects of Syria, Iraq, and Turkey, particularly GAP project. In addition, we briefly deliberate possible impacts of climate change on the region in a overview.
Result and discussion
The ETRB is a shared basin among seven countries consisting of Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. In most studies about the ETRB, three countries including Turkey, Iraq, and Syria- were investigated and Iran and Saudi Arabia are less examined and it has been confined to only taking them into account as being geographically present in this basin.
Table 1. The Euphrates and Tigris River Basin (N. A. Al-Ansari, 2013; N. Al-Ansari & Knutsson, 2011; ESCWA & BGR, 2013)