چکیده:
This study estimates three hypotheses of OPEC behavior:
market-sharing, target revenue and competitive model for the
period 1980 to 2000 for all OPEC courtiers except Iraq. To
examine co-integration relation for oil production, we use ADF
test in OLS estimation. Also we use ARDL approach to
examine these hypotheses and the long run relationship of
them. Results indicate none of three hypotheses fit completely
with OPEC behavior; Market sharing model is consistent with
most of OPEC countries, but not for all; Sandi Arabia is
consistent with market sharing and price maker. Some of
estimations of Target revenue and Competitive models are
spurious, but among countries, which have statistically
significant estimations, none of them is consistent with
competitive model. All estimations of Target revenue model
with OLS to all OPEC countries are spurious except one
{behavior of Iran is consistent with partial target revenue) and
also the long run relationship of all estimations of Target
revenue model with ARDL to all OPEC countries are
meaningless except one (behavior of Qatar isn’t consistent with
target revenue model)
خلاصه ماشینی:
"The purpose of this paper is to investigate the three competitive, target revenue and market-sharing models by traditional OLS (used by Griffin, but we additionally examine cointegration between variables of the models) and, in addition, by ARDL approach (to investigate the long run relationship between variables of the models).
We categorized ARDL approach Application to OPEC behavior hypothesis into long run relationship and ECM 1 as following: 1- Market Sharing Model: 1-1- Long run relationship: (10) 1-2- ECM: (11) 2- Competitive Model: 2-1- Long run relationship: (12) 2-2- ECM: (13) 3- Target Revenue Model: 3-1- Long run relationship: (14) 3-2- ECM: (15) Where is different between quantity of at and times.
Table 1: OLS Estimation of three Hypotheses of OPEC Behavior Market Sharing Model Competitive Model Target Revenue Model country Ln qo() Ln P() R Ln P() R Ln I() Ln P() R Algeria 0.
Totally, Libya following partial M-SM and has non-competitive behavior and estimation of TRM with two OLS and ARDL approaches isn’t co integrate.
Table 2: ARDL Estimation of three Hypotheses of OPEC Behavior Market Sharing Model Competitive Model Target Revenue Model country Ln qo() Ln P () Ln P() Ln I() Ln P() Algeria 0.
18) Standard errors are shown in parentheses Table3 indicates calculated and critical value of t to examining of Significant long run relation of models and tables 4-6 indicate ECM of them - Bo Yang, 2004, "OPEC Behavior", the Pennsylvania state University, thesis in Doctor of Philosophy."